Kufunika kwa Zisonyezo Zamalonda

Zizindikiro zachuma ndizo ziwerengero zazikulu zomwe zikuwonetsa kayendedwe ka chuma. Zinthu zofunikira zachuma zimayambitsa kayendetsedwe ka mtengo, choncho ndikofunikira kuti azindikire machitidwe a zachuma padziko lonse kuti awonetsetse bwino zoyenera, zomwe zidzathandiza ogulitsa Forex kuti apange zisankho zolondola.

Kutanthauzira ndi kusanthula zizindikiro ndizofunikira kwa anthu onse omwe ali ndi ndalama monga momwe akuwonetsera thanzi labwino la chuma, kuyembekezera kukhazikika kwake ndikupangitsa ogulitsa kuyankhapo pa nthawi zochitika mwadzidzidzi kapena zosadziŵika, zomwe zimadziwikanso kuti zovuta zachuma. Angathenso kutchulidwa ngati chida chachinsinsi cha amalonda 'pamene akuwululira zomwe zikubwera patsogolo, zomwe zingayembekezereke pa chuma ndi zomwe zimayendetsa misika.

GOSI YOPHUNZIRA KWAMBIRI (GDP)

Lipoti la GDP ndi chimodzi mwa zizindikiro zofunika kwambiri pa zachuma, chifukwa ndizofunika kwambiri pa chuma chonse. Ndalama zonse zomwe zimagwiritsidwa ntchito ndi ndalama zonse zomwe zimapangidwa pa ntchitoyi (sizikuphatikizapo ntchito yapadziko lonse) .Chuma ndi kukula - zomwe GDP zikuyimira, zimakhudza kwambiri pafupifupi aliyense payekha chuma. Mwachitsanzo, pamene chuma chili ndi thanzi labwino, zomwe tidzowona ndizochepa ntchito ndi kuwonjezeka kwa malipiro pamene malonda akufuna ntchito kuti akwaniritse zachuma. Kusintha kwakukulu kwa PGDP, mmwamba kapena pansi, kawirikawiri kumakhudza kwambiri msika, chifukwa chakuti chuma choipa nthawi zambiri chimatanthauza kuchepa ndalama kwa makampani, omwe amamasulira ndalama zochepa ndi mitengo yamtengo. Amalonda akudandaula kwambiri za kukula kwa PGDP, yomwe ndi imodzi mwa zinthu zomwe azachuma amagwiritsa ntchito kuti aone ngati chuma chikudutsa.

TUMIZANI PRICE INDEX (CPI)

Lipotili ndilo njira yogwiritsiridwa ntchito kwambiri. Zimasintha kusintha kwa mtengo wa katundu ndi malonda kuyambira mwezi ndi mwezi. Gulu la msika wa msika umene a CPI amapangidwa nawo, umachokera kuzinthu zowonjezera zomwe zimasonkhanitsidwa kuchokera ku zikwi za mabanja kudutsa ku US basketball ili ndi mitundu yoposa 200 ya katundu ndi mautumiki opatulidwa m'magulu asanu ndi atatu: chakudya ndi chakumwa, nyumba , zovala, kayendedwe, chithandizo chamankhwala, zosangalatsa, maphunziro ndi kuyankhulana ndi katundu ndi ntchito zina. Zomwe zatengedwa kuti ziwonetsetse bwino kusintha kwa ndalama zomwe zimapangitsa kuti ndalama zisamangidwe bwino, zomwe zingawononge chuma ngati sichilamuliridwa. Kusunthira pamtengo wa katundu ndi mautumiki kumakhudza mwachindunji zotetezedwa za ndalama (ndalama zomwe zimapereka kubwezeredwa mwa mawonekedwe a malipiro a nthawi ndi nthawi komanso kubwezeredwa kwa mkulu). Kulemera kwapakati ndi kosayembekezereka kumayembekezeka kuwonjezeka kwachuma, koma ngati mitengo yamagwiritsidwe ntchito popanga zabwino ndi ntchito ikufulumira, opanga phindu akhoza kupeza kuchepa kwa phindu. Kumbali inanso, kutaya mchere kungakhale chizindikiro choipa chosonyeza kuchepa kwa zofuna za ogula.

Pulogalamu ya CPI ndizofunika kwambiri komanso zikuwonetseratu zachuma komanso ndiyo njira yabwino kwambiri yodziwira mtengo wa kusintha kwa moyo. Amagwiritsidwa ntchito pokonza malipiro, zopindulitsa pantchito, mabakitala a msonkho ndi zizindikiro zina zofunika zachuma. Ikhoza kuuza omwe ali ndi ndalama za zomwe zingachitike misika yamalonda, yomwe imagawana mgwirizano wowongoka ndi wosagwirizana ndi ogulitsa mitengo.

PRODUCER PRICE INDEX (PPI)

Pogwirizana ndi CPI, lipoti ili likuwonedwa ngati imodzi mwa njira zofunika kwambiri zowonjezera. Ikulingalira mtengo wa katundu pamsika wamtundu. Kusiyanitsa ndi CPI, PPI imayesa momwe alimi ambiri amalandira katunduyo pamene CPI ikuyesa mtengo woperekedwa ndi ogula katundu. Chidziwitso chachikulu pamaso pa omwe akugulitsa ndalama ndi luso la PPI kulongosola za CPI. Chiphunzitsochi ndi chakuti kuwonjezeka kwakukulu komwe kumachitika ndi ogulitsa kudzaperekedwa kwa ogula. Zina mwa mphamvu za PPI ndizo:

  • Chizindikiro cholondola cha tsogolo la CPI
  • Zakale 'zochitika mbiri' ya mndandanda wa deta
  • Kuwonongeka kwabwino kwa oyendetsa malonda mu makampani omwe anafunsidwa (kutsanzira, zida zamtengo wapatali, magulu ena othandizira
  • Zikhoza kusuntha misika bwino
  • Deta imaperekedwa ndi popanda kusintha kwa nyengo

Komabe, zofookazo ndi izi:

  • Zinthu zowonongeka, monga mphamvu ndi chakudya zingathe kusokoneza deta
  • Osati mafakitale onse azachuma akuphimbidwa

Pulogalamu ya PPI imakhala yowonjezereka chifukwa cha kuyang'ana kwake kwapansipansi ndipo ikhoza kuwonedwa ngati wogulitsa pamsika. Ndiwothandiza kwa osunga ndalama m'mafakitale omwe akugwiritsidwa ntchito pofufuza momwe mungagulitsire malonda ndi machitidwe omwe mumapeza.

ZOKHUDZA ZOPHUNZITSA INDEX

Lipotili likuwonetsa katundu wogulitsidwa mu makampani opanga katundu ndipo zimatengera zitsanzo za malo ogulitsira malonda m'dziko lonseli. Imawonetsa deta kuchokera mwezi wapitawo. Makampani a makulidwe onse amagwiritsidwa ntchito mu kafukufuku, kuchokera ku Wal-Mart kupita ku malonda apamtunda, osungirako. Monga momwe kafukufukuwo adzakwaniritsire malonda a mwezi wapitawo, izi zimapanga chizindikiro cha nthawi yeniyeni ya ntchito ya mafakitale ofunikirayi koma zachitengo cha mtengo wamtengo wapatali. Malonda ogulitsira malonda akuwonedwa kuti ndizomwe zikuwonetseratu (magalimoto omwe amasonyeza momwe zinthu zikuyendera panopa m'madera ena) monga momwe zikuwonetsera mkhalidwe wamakono, ndipo umatengedwa ngati chizindikiro chofunika kwambiri chisanafike, chomwe chimapangitsa chidwi chochuluka kuchokera Alonda a Wall Street ndi Board Review Review omwe amatsata deta kwa oyang'anira bungwe la Federal Reserve Board. Kutulutsidwa kwa lipoti la Retail Sales kungapangitse pamwamba pa chisokonezo pamsika.

Kuwonekeratu kwake ngati kukonzekera kupsyinjika kwa chiwombankhanga kungachititse anthu akupanga kubwereranso ndi mwayi wa Fed wa kuchepetsa kapena kuchepa, malingana ndi momwe akuyendera. Mwachitsanzo, kuwonjezeka kwakukulu kwa malonda ogulitsa malonda pakati pa bizinesi kungatengedwe ndi kanthawi kochepa kawirikawiri mwa chiwongoladzanja ndi ndalama zomwe zili ndi ndalama zowonjezera. Ngati malonda akugulitsa kapena kuchepetsedwa, izi zikutanthauza kuti ogula sagwiritsapo ntchito pazigawo zapitazo ndipo akhoza kuwonetsa kusagwirizana kwachuma chifukwa cha ntchito yaikulu yomwe akugwiritsira ntchito pamoyo wawo.

NTCHITO ZA NTCHITO

Chidziwitso cha ntchito yofunika kwambiri chimachitika Lachisanu loyamba mwezi uliwonse. Izi zikuphatikizapo kuchuluka kwa ntchito (chiwerengero cha ogwira ntchito omwe sagwira ntchito, chiwerengero cha ntchito zomwe zapangidwa, maola ambiri ogwira ntchito pa sabata ndi owerengera ndalama zomwe amapeza patsiku). Lipotili kawirikawiri limabweretsa kayendetsedwe ka msika. Lipoti la NFP (Non-Farm Employment) lipoti ndilo lipoti lomwe liri ndi mphamvu yaikulu yosunthira misika. Chotsatira chake amatsenga ambiri, amalonda ndi amalonda akuyembekeza nambala ya NFP ndi kayendetsedwe ka kayendetsedwe komwe kayambitsa. Pokhala ndi maphwando ochuluka akuyang'ana lipoti ili ndikulimasulira, ngakhale chiwerengero chikubwera molingana ndi chiwerengerocho, chikhoza kuyambitsa mlingo waukulu.

Mofanana ndi zizindikiro zina, kusiyana pakati pa deta ya NFP ndi chiwerengero chomwe chiyembekezeredwa chidzapeza zotsatira za deta pamsika. Mu malipiro omwe sali afamu akukula, ndi chisonyezero chabwino kuti chuma chikukula komanso mosiyana. Komabe, ngati kuwonjezeka kwa NFP kumachitika pafupipafupi, izi zingachititse kuwonjezeka kwa kuchepa kwa mitengo.

KUDZIKHULUPIRIRA KWAMBIRI INDEX (CCI)

Monga momwe dzina limasonyezera, chizindikiro ichi chimayesa wogula chidaliro. Zimatanthauzidwa ngati kuchuluka kwa chiyembekezo kuti ogula ali ndi momwe amachitira chuma, zomwe zikuwonetsa kudzera mwa ogulitsa ogula ndi ntchito zomwe amagwiritsa ntchito. Chizindikiro ichi chachuma chimatulutsidwa Lachiwiri lapitalo la mweziwu, ndipo chimayesa m'mene anthu amakhulupirira kuti ali ndi ndalama zokhazokha zomwe zimakhudza zofuna zawo zachuma, mwazinthu zina, ntchito yawo yogwiritsira ntchito ndalama. Pachifukwa ichi, CCI ikuwoneka ngati chizindikiro chofunikira cha chikhalidwe chonse cha chuma.

Ziyeso zimagwiritsidwa ntchito monga chiwonetsero cha kugwilitsila nchito kachulukidwe kachulukidwe kazomwe zimakhala pakhomo ndipo Federal Reserve ikuyang'ana CCI pamene chiwerengero cha ndalama chimasintha.

ZOTHANDIZA ZOTHANDIZA

Lipotili limapereka kuchuluka kwa momwe anthu akugwiritsira ntchito pogula nthawi yayitali (zinthu zomwe zikuyembekezeredwa kupitirira zaka zoposa 3) ndipo zingapereke chidziwitso cha tsogolo la mafakitale. Ndiwothandiza kwa osamangolenga osati muzomwe angatchulidwe, koma monga chizindikiro cha bizinesi yonse. Ndalama zamtengo wapatali zimayimira kukwera mtengo kwakukulu kwa kampani kungapange ndi kusonyeza chidaliro pazinthu zamalonda, zomwe zingachititse kuwonjezeka malonda kuwonjezereka kugawidwa ndi kupindula mu maola ogwira ntchito ndi osakhala akulima. Zina mwa mphamvu za malamulo olimba ndizo:

  • Kusokonezeka kwa malonda
  • Deta inaperekedwa mwakuya ndi kusintha kwa nyengo
  • Zimapereka chidziwitso chodziwika bwino monga masankhulidwe oyendetsera ntchito ndi bizinesi yatsopano, zomwe zimawerengera kuti zidzalandire mtsogolo

Komabe, zofooka zomwe zingadziwike ndi izi:

  • Chitsanzo cha kafukufuku sichikhala ndi chiwerengero choyimira chiwerengero kuti chiyese zolakwika
  • Chosavuta; Mankhwala osuntha amayenera kugwiritsidwa ntchito kuti adziŵe zochitika zam'tsogolo

Lipotilo lachidziŵitso limapereka chidziwitso chowonjezeka pa zowonjezereka zomwe zizindikiro zambiri, ndipo zingakhale zothandiza makamaka kuthandiza oweta ndalama kuti amve chifukwa cha zomwe angathe kupeza m'makampani oimiridwa kwambiri.

BUKU LA BEIGE

Tsiku lomasulidwa la chizindikiro ichi ndi Lachitatu pamaso pa Komiti iliyonse ya Federal Open Market (FOMC) pamsonkhanowu, pa eyiti (8) nthawi pachaka. Mawu akuti 'Beige Book' amagwiritsidwa ntchito pa lipoti la Fed wotchedwa Chidule cha Commentary pa Current Economic Conditions ndi Federal Reserve District.

Bukhu la Beige kawirikawiri limaphatikizapo malipoti ochokera ku mabanki ndi oyankhulana ndi azachuma, akatswiri a msika, ndi zina zotero ndipo amagwiritsidwa ntchito kudziwitsa mamembala kusintha kwa chuma chomwe chingachitike kuchokera kumsonkhano wotsiriza. Zokambirana zomwe nthawi zambiri zimakhala zikuchitika pamsika wogwira ntchito, malipiro ndi mtengo wamtengo wapatali, ntchito yogulitsa malonda komanso mafakitale ogulitsa katundu. Kufunika kwa beige Mabuku omwe amabweretsa kwa azinesi ndikuti amatha kuona ndemanga zomwe zikuwoneka bwino ndikuthandizira kufotokozera zomwe zikuchitika ndikuyembekezera kusintha pa miyezi ingapo yotsatira.

MALANGIZO OTHANDIZA

Ndalama za chiwongoladzanja ndizo zimayendetsa zazikulu pamsika wamakono ndipo zizindikiro zonse zachuma zomwe tazitchulazi zikuyang'anitsitsa kwambiri ndi Komiti ya Federal Open Market kuti adziwe momwe umoyo ulili wabwino. Ndalama zimatha kusankha ngati zidzatsika, kuwuka kapena kuchoka pa chiwerengero cha chiwongoladzanja chosasinthika, zonse malinga ndi umboni womwe unasonkhana pa umoyo wachuma. Kukhalapo kwa chiwongoladzanja kumawathandiza abwereketsa kuti azigwiritsa ntchito ndalama nthawi yomweyo m'malo moyembekezera kusunga ndalama kuti agule. Pansi pa chiwongoladzanja, anthu okonda kwambiri kubwereka ndalama kuti agula zinthu zazikulu, monga nyumba kapena magalimoto. Pamene ogula amalipira zochepa zochepa, izi zimapereka ndalama zambiri zomwe zingachititse kuti pakhale ndalama zambiri zomwe zimapangitsa kuti ndalama zisinthe. Kumbali ina, mitengo yapamwamba ya chiwongoladzanja ikutanthauza kuti ogula alibe ndalama zowonongeka kwambiri ndipo ayenera kuchepetsa kugwiritsa ntchito ndalama. Pamene chiwongoladzanja cha chiwongoladzanja chikuphatikizidwa ndi miyezo yowonjezera ngongole, mabanki amakhala ndi ngongole zochepa Izi zimakhudza ogula, malonda ndi alimi omwe amachepetsa kugwiritsa ntchito zipangizo zatsopano, motero kuchepetsa zokolola kapena kuchepetsa chiwerengero cha antchito. Nthawi zonse chiwerengero cha chiwongoladzanja chikukwera kapena kugwa, timamva za ndalama za ndalama zomwe zimagwiritsidwa ntchito ku federal. Kusintha kwa chiŵerengero cha chiwongoladzanja kungakhudze zonse zowonjezera kutsika ndi kutsika kwachuma. Kutsika kwa mitengo kumatanthauza kuwonjezeka kwa mtengo wa katundu ndi ntchito pa nthawi, chifukwa cha chuma cholimba ndi chamoyo. Komabe, ngati kutsika kwa ndalama kutatsala pang'ono kutsekedwa, kungachititse kuwonongeka kwakukulu kwa kugula. Monga tikuonera, mitengo ya chiwongoladzanja imakhudza chuma mwa kukopa ndalama zamagula ndi bizinesi, kupuma kwa ndalama ndi kubwerera. Mwa kusintha ndondomeko ya federal ndalama, Ndalama zimathandiza kuti chuma chisamalire pa nthawi yaitali.

Kumvetsetsa mgwirizano pakati pa chiwongoladzanja ndi ndalama za US, kumathandiza anthu kuti agwire chithunzi chachikulu ndikupanga zisankho zabwino.

MAFUNSO A ZINTHU

Lipotili limaphatikizapo chiwerengero cha nyumba zatsopano zomwe zayamba kumanga nyumba mkati mwa mwezi komanso malonda omwe alipo kale. Ntchito yokhalamo ndi chifukwa chachikulu cha zokopa zachuma pa dziko ndipo ndiyeso yabwino yachuma. Kutsika kwapanyumba komwe kulipo komanso kuyambira kwatsopano kwa nyumba kungayambidwe ngati chizindikiro cha chuma chofooka. Zolinga zonse zomanga nyumba ndi zigawo za nyumba zidzawonetsedwa ngati kusintha kwa chiwerengero kuchokera mwezi umene unayambira ndi chaka chimodzi. Nyumba zimayambira ndi kumanga zigawo zonse zimayesedwa ngati zizindikiro zowonetsera, ndipo chiwerengero cha zivomerezo zovomerezeka zimagwiritsidwa ntchito poyerekeza ndi bungwe la Conference Board la US Leading Index (mndandanda womwe umagwiritsidwa ntchito mwezi uliwonse kuti ulosere kutsogolo kwa kayendetsedwe ka zachuma padziko lonse mu miyezi ikubwera). Izi sizitanthauza lipoti lomwe limadodometsa msika, komabe akatswiri ena amagwiritsa ntchito nyumbayi imayambira lipoti lothandizira kulenga zizindikiro zina zogulira.

phindu Corporate

Lipotili limapangidwa ndi Bureau of Economic Analysis (BEA) pamwezi uliwonse ndipo limafotokozera mwachidule ndalama zomwe mabungwe angapindule nawo mu Ndalama Zowonongeka ndi Zambiri za Ndalama (NIPA).

Kufunika kwawo kuli mchiyanjano ndi GDP, monga ndalama zogwirira ntchito zikuwonetsa kuwonjezeka kwa malonda ndi kulimbikitsa kukula kwa ntchito. Makampani amagwiritsa ntchito phindu lawo pofuna kulipira ndalama, kulipira malipiro kwa eni eni kapena kubwezeretsanso bizinesi yawo. Kuonjezera apo, amalonda amayang'ana mwayi wabwino wogulitsa, motero amachulukitsa ntchito yamsika.

bwino Trade

The Balance Balance ndi kusiyana pakati pa zochokera kunja ndi kutumizidwa kunja kwa dziko linalake kwa nthawi yoperekedwa. Zimagwiritsidwa ntchito ndi akatswiri azachuma monga chiwerengero cha ziwerengero, chifukwa zimathandiza kuti amvetsetse mphamvu za chuma cha dziko poyerekeza ndi chuma cha mayiko ena ndi kutuluka kwa malonda pakati pa mayiko.

Zogulitsa zamalonda ndi zofunika, kumene mtengo wamtengo wapatali umatanthawuza kuti zotumizira zikuluzikulu zomwe zimatumizidwa kunja; komano, kuwonongeka kwa malonda kungabweretse ku ngongole yaikulu ya kuntchito.

Mndandandawo umalembedwa mwezi uliwonse.

ogula amaganiza

Kuyeza kwa chiwerengerochi ndi chiwonetsero cha zachuma cha umoyo wachuma, womwe umatsimikiziridwa ndi wogula malingaliro. Zimakhala ndi malingaliro a zachuma zamakono za munthu, thanzi la chuma cha m'deralo mu nthawi yayitali ndi maulosi a kukula kwachuma kwa nthawi yayitali.

Lingaliro la ogulitsa lingagwiritsidwe ntchito kuti tiwone momwe anthu okhutira kapena osayanjanitsika akuyendera pa msika wamakono.

Kupanga PMI

The PMI Yogulitsa ndi chisonyezero cha umoyo wa zachuma pa ntchito yopanga dziko lopatsidwa. Mndandandawu umachokera pa kafukufuku wa oyang'anira malonda kuchokera ku makampani oyendetsa kudutsa gawo lopanga zinthu, kuyesa malingaliro awo pa zachuma zamakono komanso zamtsogolo.

Mndandandawu umasindikizidwa ndi Markit ndi ISM, komwe kufufuza kwa ISM kumaonedwa kukhala kofunika kwambiri.

Kuwonjezeka kwa ndondomeko kumapangitsa kuti kulimbikitsidwa kwa ndalama komanso 50 chizindikiro choyimira chimawerengedwa ngati chofunika kwambiri, pamwamba pa zomwe ntchito yamalonda ikukwera ndipo pansi ikuchepa.

Buku la Manufacturing PMI likufalitsidwa mwezi uliwonse.

Tsegulani Akaunti ya ECN yaulere Masiku ano!

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