Kukosha kweMari Zvirongwa

Zviratidzo zvezvehupfumi ndezvinyorwa zvinokosha zvinoratidza hutungamiri hwehupfumi. Zviitiko zvinokosha zvezvemupfumi zvinokonzera kushambadzira kwemafambiro ekutanga, naizvozvo zvakakosha kuwana nharo-yekare yezviitiko zvezvemupfumi zvepasi rose kuitira kuti tive nekuongorora kwakakosha, izvo zvichaita kuti Forex vatengesi vaite zvisarudzo zvebhizimisi zvakananga.

Kududzira uye kuongorora zviratidzo kunokosha kune vashandi vose sezvo vachiratidza hutano hwehupfumi, vanotarisira kutsika kwayo uye vanoita kuti vatengesi vaite chimwe nguva panguva yezviitiko zvisinganzwisisiki kana kuti zvisingazivikanwi, inozivikanwawo sekutengesa kwehupfumi. Vanogonawo kutumidzwa sechinhu chakavanzika chevatengesi 'sezvo vachiratidza zvichazovuya, izvo zvingatarisirwa zvehupfumi uye izvo zvinotungamirirwa nemisika.

GROSS DOMESTIC PRODUCT (GDP)

Mushumo weGDP ndeimwe yezvinonyanya kukosha pane zvese zvehupfumi, sezvo ichi ndicho chiyero chikuru chehuwandu hwehupfumi. Iko mari yekutengesa kwezvinhu zvose nebasa rinobudiswa nehupfumi hwose munguva yekota ichienzaniswa (haisanganisi basa rose renyika). Kugadzirwa kwemari uye kukura- iyo GDP inomiririra, ine simba guru kune vose vanenge vari mukati mazvo hupfumi. Semuenzaniso, apo hupfumi huri hutano, izvo zvatichawanzoona kushaya hurumende zvakanyanya uye kuwedzerwa kwemari apo mabhizimisi anoda basa rekushandira kusangana nehupfumi huri kukura. Kuchinja kukuru kweGDP, zvichidzika kana pasi, kazhinji kune zvakakosha pamusika, nemhaka yekuti hupfumi hwehupfumi hunowanzoreva kuti mari shoma yekambani inoshandiswa, iyo inoshandura kuva mari shoma uye mutengo wematengo. Vashandi vanonyanya kunetseka nezvekukura kweGDP, izvo ndezvimwe zvezvinhu zvinoshandiswa mune zvehupfumi kusarudza kana hupfumi huri muhupfumi.

MUMUSORO PEPI INDEX (CPI)

Uyu mushumo ndiyo inoshandiswa kupfuura yakawanda yehutsika. Inotarisa kuchinja kwekutengeswa kwemutengo wezvinhu zvekutengesa nemabasa kubva pamwedzi kusvika pamwedzi. Gwaro rekukwereka kwegore rokutanga iro iro CPI rakakonzerwa naro, rinobva pane zvakadzama zvinyorwa zvinyorwa zvakaunganidzwa kubva kuzviuru zvemhuri kumativi ose eUUS bhasikiti ine zvinyorwa zvinopfuura 200 zvigadzirwa zvezvinhu uye mabasa akaparadzaniswa mumapoka masere: zvokudya uye zvinwiwa, imba , zvipfeko, kutfambisa, kurapwa, kuraidzo, dzidzo nekukurukurirana uye zvimwe zvinhu nezvinhu. Izvo zviyero zvakawanda zvakatorwa kuti zvigadzirise mufananidzo wakajeka wekuchinja mumari yehupenyu kunobatsira kuchengetedza vatengi vemari kuti vawane manzwiro ekuderera kwezvinhu, izvo zvinogona kuparadza hupfumi kana zvisiri kutarisirwa. Mafambiro emitengo yezvigadzirwa nemasangano anonyanya kukanganisa zvikwereti zvisingabhadharwi (inotengeswa iyo inopa kudzoka nenzira yekusungirirwa nguva nenguva uye pakupedzisira kudzoka kwomukuru mukuru mukukura). Kuzvigadzirisa uye kunoramba kuripo kunotarisirwa mune hupfumi huri kukura, asi kana mitengo yemidziyo inoshandiswa mukugadzirwa kwezvakanaka nemabasa inokurumidza kukurumidza, vashandi vanogona kuwana ruzivo rwokuderera. Kune rumwe rutivi, kuparadzanisa kungava chiratidzo chisina kunaka chinoratidza kuderera kwekuda kwevatengi.

Iyo CPI ndiyo inonyanya kukosha uye inonyanya kuongororwa nehuwandu hwezvemari uye ndiyo inonyanyozivikanwa chiyero chekugadzirisa mari yekuchinja kwehupenyu. Inoshandiswa kugadzirisa mubayiro, kubhadhara mari, kubhadhara mitero uye zvimwe zviratidzo zvinokosha zvemari. Inogona kutaurira varairidzi vezvinogona kuitika mumisika yemari, iyo inowirirana nehukama hwakananga uye husinganzwisisiki nemitengo yevatengi.

PRODUCER PRICE INDEX (PPI)

Pamwe chete neCPI, iyo mharidzo inoonekwa seimwe yezvinonyanya kukosha zvekutengesa. Iyo inoyera mutengo wezvinhu pazana yepamusoro. Sezvo kusiyana kweCPI, PPI inotarisa kuti varimi vakura vari kugamuchira sei zvinhu apo CPI inoyera mari inobhadharwa nevatengi vezvinhu. Chinhu chakanyanya kukosha mumaziso evasimari inyanzvi yePPI kutaurira CPI. Dzidziso iyi ndeyekuti kuwedzera kwekuwedzera kwezvinhu zvinowanikwa nevatengesi zvichaendeswa kune vatengi. Mamwe emasimba ePPI ndeaya:

  • Icho chinonyanya kuratidza chinangwa chemuchina CPI
  • Yakareba 'kushandura nhoroondo' yedhepfenyuro dheta
  • Kuparara kwakanaka kubva kune vatengesi mumakambani akaongororwa (miming, commodity info, mamwe mabasa emakambani
  • Inogona kutengesa misika zvakanaka
  • Dhiyabhorosi inowanikwa uye uye pasina nguva yekugadzirisa

Kune rumwe rutivi, utera huri:

  • Zvinhu zvakashata, zvakadai semasimba uye zvokudya zvinogona kuvhara deta
  • Hasi ose emabhizimisi mune zvehupfumi akavharwa

Iyo PPI inowana zvakawanda zvekutsvaga kwekuona kwayo kwekuwedzera kwezvinhu uye inogona kuonekwa seine simba rinokunda mutengesi. Inobatsira kune vashandi mune zvemabhizimisi akavharwa nemashoko ekuongorora kushandiswa kunogona kutengesa uye kuwanikwa kwemitambo.

RETAIL SALES INDEX

Uyu mushumo unotarisa zvinhu zvinotengeswa mukati mekambani inoshandiswa uye zvinotora shanduro yezvigadzirwa zvezvitoro zvekutengesa munyika yose. Iyo inoratidzira data kubva mumwedzi wapfuura. Makambani emasero ose anoshandiswa muongororo, kubva kuWal-Mart kuenda kuzvimiririra, mabhizimisi maduku. Sezvo kuongororwa kuchakwanisa kutengesa mwedzi wapfuura, inoita kuti chive chiratidzo chenguva yakakodzera kwete kwete chete kushanda kwebhizimusi rino rinokosha asi yehutengo hwemuitiro wega wega. Kutengesa kwekutengesa kunofungidzirwa sechinhu chinonyanya kuenzaniswa (metric inoratidza huripo huno hwehupfumi mune imwe nzvimbo) sezvo ichiratidzira huri huno huri hupfumi, uye hunofanirwawo kuti hunokosha hunotangira-inflationary, izvo zvinoumba chido chikuru kubva Vatariri veWall Street uye Conference Conference Board iyo inotora dhiyabhorosi vatungamiri veGeral Reserve Board. Kusunungurwa kweRevenue Sales Sales kunogona kukonzera pamusoro pekushanda kwekutsvaga mumusika.

Kunotsanangurwa kwaro sekugadzirisa kwekuwedzera kwekuwedzera kwezvinhu kunogona kuita kuti vashandi varatidze zvakare kufungidzira kweFed kuyerwa kwekucheka kana kukwira, zvichienderana nekutungamirirwa kwezvinoitika. Semuenzaniso, kuwedzera kwakasimba mukutengesa kwekutengesa pakati pebhizimisi kunogona kuteverwa nekukwira kwenguva pfupi muzvikwereti zvinokonzerwa neFed muchivimbo chekudzivirira kukanganisa kwemazana. Kana kuwedzera kwekutengesa kunopera kana kuti kunonoka, izvi zvinoreva kuti vatengi havasi kupedza pamatunhu akare uye vanogona kuratidza kuderedza hupfumi pamusana pekukosha kwebasa iro rinoshandiswa padziviriro rinowedzera mune hutano hwehupfumi.

EMPLOYMENT INDICATORS

Chiziviso chinonyanya kukosha basa chinoitika musi weChishanu chokutanga mwedzi mumwe nomumwe. Inosanganisira kushaya kwehuwandu hwemabasa (chiyero chebasa risina basa, nhamba yemabasa yakasikwa, mavhareji emaawa anoshandiswa vhiki imwe neimwe uye inowanikwa maawa ega ega). Uyu mushumo unowanzowedzera mumatongerwo makuru emakethe. Mushumo weNFP (Non-Farm Employment) mushumo ingangodaro mushumo une simba guru rekutsvaga misika. Somugumisiro vazhinji vanoongorora, vatengesi nevatengesi vanotarisira nhamba yeNFP uye mutungamiri wekutungamirira ichaita. Uye nemapoka mazhinji ari kutarisa rondedzero iyi nekuridudzira, kunyange kana nhamba ichiuya maererano nemanotaridziro, inogona kukonzera kuwandisa kwehuwandu.

Sezvimwe nezvimwe zviratidzo, musiyano pakati pezvakanyorwa zveNFP nedzimwe nhamba dzinotarisirwa ichagadzirisa mamiriro ose ezvinyorwa mumusika. Muchibhadharo chekurima asiri chekurima chirikuwedzera, inoratidza zvakanaka kuti hupfumi huri kukura uye zvakasiyana. Zvisinei, kana kuwedzerwa muNFP kunoitika nokukurumidza, izvi zvinogona kutungamirira kuwedzera mune zvekuwedzera.

KUTENDA KWEMUNYORI INDEX (CCI)

Sezvinoratidzwa nezita racho, chiratidzo ichi chinotenga mutengi kuvimba. Inotsanangurwa sehuwandu hwekutarisira kuti vatengi vane maererano nehupfumi hwezvematongerwe enyika, iyo inoratidzira kuburikidza nevatengi vanochengetedza uye vanopedza basa. Ichi chinoratidziro chezvemari chinobudiswa Chipiri chekupedzisira chemwedzi, uye inotarisa kuti vanhu vane chivimbo sei vanofunga nezvekugara kwavo kwakagadzikana kunokonzera zvakananga kusarudza kwavo kwezvematongerwo enyika, mune mamwe mazwi, basa ravo rekushandisa. Nokuda kwechikonzero ichi, CCI inoratidzika semuenzaniso mukuru wehupenyu hwehupfumi.

Izvo zviyero zvinoshandiswa sechiratidziro chezvinoshandiswa zvinoshandiswa muhuwandu hwehuwandu hwezvakagadzirwa zvemukati uye Federal Reserve inotarisa CCI apo inotarisa kufarira kwenhanho kuchinja.

ZVINOKOSHA ZVAKANAKA MITEMO

Uyu mushumo unopa chiyero chekuti vanhu vari kushandisa mari yakareba kwenguva yakareba kutenga (michina inotarisirwa kupedza makore anopfuura 3) uye inogona kupa humwe ruzivo mune ramangwana rekushanda kwemabhizimisi. Iyo inobatsira kune vashandi kwete chete mumashoko ehurongwa hwehutano hwemazinga, asi sechiratidzo chebhizimisi chinoda sechose. Zvinhu zvitsuwa zvinomiririra huwandu hwemari-kukodzwa kwekambani kambani inogona kuita uye inoratidza kuvimba mune zvebhizimisi, izvo zvingaita kuti kuwedzerwa kutengeserana kuwedzere kuwedzera kwekugovera nekuwana muawa inoshandiswa uye mairi kwete yepurazi. Zvimwe zvemasimba ezvigadzirwa zvekugadzirisa zvinhu ndezvi:

  • Zvakanaka zvemabhizimisi kuputsika
  • Dhiyabhorosi yakapa yakasvibiswa uye ine kuchinja kwemwaka
  • Inopa ruzivo rwakatarisa ruzivo rwakadai semashamba ekuenzanisa uye bhizimisi idzva, iro rinotarisa kune ramangwana rekuwana

Kune rimwe divi, utera hunogona kuonekwa ndehwekuti:

  • Senziso yekuongorora haina kutora nhamba yezvinyorwa zvisizvo kuti ione kukanganisa
  • Highly volatile; kushandura mafungu kunofanirwa kushandiswa kutora mamiriro ekugara kwenguva refu

Mharidzo inowanzopa ruzivo rwakawanda pamusoro pekutengeswa kwezvinhu zvakawanda zviratidzo, uye zvinogona kunyanya kubatsira pakubatsira vanoita mari kuti vawane manzwiro ekuwana mari muzvikwata zvinomiririrwa zvikuru.

BEIGE BOOK

Zuva rekubudiswa kwechiratidzo ichi ndeche Chitatu mbiri musangano weFeral Open Market Komiti (FOMC) musangano pazvikwereti zvinokwana, masere (8) nguva pagore. Izwi rokuti 'Beige Book' rinoshandiswa kugwaro reFed rinonzi Summary of Commentary pane Current Economic Conditions ne Federal Reserve District.

Bhuku reBhuku rinowanzova nemishumo kubva kumabhangi uye mabvunzurudzo neye economists, vadzidzisi vemakethe, nezvimwewo uye inoshandiswa kuzivisa nhengo kuchinja kwehupfumi ingave yakaitika kubva pamusangano wokupedzisira. Nhaurirano dzinowanzotarisirwa dziri kumativi ose emakambani evashandi, mubhadharo uye kumanikidziro emitengo, zvekutengesa uye ecommerce basa nekugadzirwa kwezvinhu. Kukosha kwezvinyorwa Mabhuku anounza kune varairidzi ndeyekuti vanogona kuona mhinduro dzinotarisa mberi uye dzinogona kubatsira mukufanotaura maitiro uye kutarisira kuchinja mumwedzi mishomanana inotevera.

INTEREST RATES

Nharaunda inofanirwa ndiyo inofambisa madzimambo ekutanga emakambani uye zvose zvinotaurwa pamusoro pehupfumi zviratidzo zvinonyatsoongororwa ne Federal Federal Market Committee kuitira kuti ione hutano hwehupfumi. Nhepfenyuro inogona kusarudza zvakakodzera kana ichatsika, inomuka kana kusiya mhindu yemitengo isingashanduki, zvose zvichienderana nehuchapupu hwakaunganidzwa pane hutano hwehupfumi. Kuvapo kwezvikwereti zvinotendera vateresi kushandisa mari pakarepo panzvimbo yekumirira kuchengetedza mari yekuitenga. Izvo zvakaderera chikwata chekufarira, vanhu vanoda zvikuru vanokwereta mari yekuita zvinhu zvakawanda, zvakadai seimba kana motokari. Apo vashandi vanobhadhara zvishoma muzvibereko, izvi zvinovapa mari yakawanda yekushandisa iyo inogona kuita kuti kugumbuka kuwedzere kushandiswa kwemari muhupfumi. Kune rumwe rutivi, zvikwereti zvepamusoro zvinoreva kuti vatengi havana mari yakawanda inoshandiswa uye vanofanira kuderedza kushandiswa kwemari. Kana huwandu hwemari yepamusoro huchibatanidzwa nekuwedzera kukweretesa mitemo, mabhangi anoita zvishoma zvikwereti. Izvi zvinokanganisa vashandi, mabhizimisi uye varimi vanozochera pamashandisirwo emari yezvigadzirwa zvitsva, zvichiita kuti zvishoma nezvishoma kugadzirwa kana kuderedza nhamba yevashandi. Chero kana zvikwereti zvikwira kana kuwira, tinonzwa nezve federal mari yepamutengo (iyo mabhanji anoshandiswa kubhadhara mari). Kuchinja kwehuwandu hwezvibereko kunogona kukanganisa zvose kutengesa uye kutengesa. Kutengesa kwezvirwere kunoreva kukwira mumutengo wezvigadzirwa nemishandiro kwenguva yakareba, semugumisiro wehupfumi hwakasimba uye hwakanaka. Zvisinei, kana kutengesa kwezvinhu zvisiyiwa kusina kubvunzwa, kunogona kutungamirira ku kurasikirwa kukuru kwesimba rekutenga. Sezvo zvinogona kuonekwa, chido chekudarika chinokanganisa hupfumi kuburikidza nekukurudzira vatengi uye kushandiswa kwebhizimisi, kutengesa kwezvinhu uye kubviswa. Nokugadzirisa federal mari yehuwandu, Fed inobatsira kuchengetedza hupfumi muhutano kupfuura kwenguva refu.

Kunzwisisa hukama pakati pehuwandu hwemari uye hupfumi hweUnited States, anobatsira vatyairi kuti vanzwisise mufananidzo mukuru uye vanoita zvirongwa zvekutsvaga zviri nani.

DHAINDA DHAINDA

Mushumo unosanganisira nhamba yemisha mitsva yakatanga kuvakwa mumwedzi pamwe chete nekutengesa kwekumba. Basa rekugara kwevakawanda ndiro chikonzero chikuru chekutengesa kwezvemari kwenyika uye chiyero chakanaka chehupfumi. Kutengesa kwekugara kwekumba uye kutsika kwekutanga kwemusha kunogona kuonekwa sechiratidzo chehupfumi husina simba. Zvose zvivako zvekuvaka uye zvivakwa zveimba zvinoratidzirwa sehuwandu hwekuchinja kubva mumwedzi wakatarwa uye gore-pamusoro pemakore. Iyo dzimba dzinotanga uye dzinovaka zvinyorwa zvose dzinofungidzirwa sekutungamira zviratidzo, uye chivakwa chekubvumidza zviyero zvinoshandiswa kuenzanisa Conference Board yeU.S. Leading Index (nhamba inoshandiswa mwedzi mumwe nomumwe kufanotaura kutungamirirwa kwehupfumi hwepasi rose mumwedzi inouya). Izvi hazvirevi ruzivo runoshungurudza misika, asi vamwe vaongorori vachashandisa iyo imba inotanga mushumo kuti vabatsire kugadziriswa kune dzimwe zviratidzo-based.

Corporate purofiti

Uyu mushumo wezvinyorwa unosimbiswa neBusiness of Economic Analysis (BEA) pamwedzi wega wega uye inopfupikisa mari yakawanikwa yemakambani muNational Income uye Product Accounts (NIPA).

Kukosha kwavo kunowanikwa mukuratirana neGDP, sezvo sangano rakasimba sangano rinoratidza kukura kwekutengesa uye kukurudzira kukura kwebasa. Makambani anoshandisa purogiramu yavo yekusimudzira mari, vanobhadhara zvikwereti kune avo vagovhendi kana kuti vadzorere zvakare mubhizinesi ravo. Mukuwedzera, vatengesi vanotsvaka mikana yakanaka yokutsvaga, saka vanowedzera kukoka kwemashamba emari.

Trade musaridzwa

Iko Trade Balance ndiyo musiyano pakati pezvokutengeserana uye zvekutengeswa kwenyika inopiwa kune imwe nguva yakatarwa. Inoshandiswa nehupfumi sechirongwa chechirongwa, sezvo ichiita kuti vakwanise kunzwisisa simba rehupfumi hwehupfumi hwenyika rinoenzaniswa nedzimwe hupfumi hwenyika uye kubuda kwebhizimisi pakati pemarudzi.

Kuwedzerwa kwezvokudya kunofadza, uko kuwedzera kwakanaka kunoreva kuti kutengeserana kwakakura kunotengeswa; asi kune rumwe rutivi, kutengesa kwekutengeserana kunogona kutungamirira kune chikwereti chikuru chemukati.

Nhamba yacho inobudiswa pamwedzi.

Consumer pfungwa

Iyi nhamba yekuenzanisa ndiyo chiratidzo chezvoupfumi chehutano hwehupfumi hwose, hwakatemwa nemutengi wekutengesa. Inosanganisira manzwiro ehutano hwehutano hwemunhu, hutano hwehupfumi hwomuguta munguva shomanana nekufanotaura kwekugara kwenguva refu kwehupfumi.

Kutengesa kwevatengi kunogona kushandiswa kuitira kuti vaone kuti vanhu vane tariro kana kuti vasina tariro vanoenda kune mamiriro ekutengeserana.

Manufacturing PMI

Iyo Manufacturing PMI inoratidzira hutano hwehupfumi hwehuwandu hwekugadzira yenyika inopiwa. Nhamba yacho inotarisana neongororo yevatengesi vekutengesa kubva kumakambani anotungamira kuenda kune imwe sangano rekugadzira, kuenzanisa maonero avo emamiriro ehupfumi aripo uye ramangwana ramangwana.

Nhamba yacho inoparidzirwa na Markit uye ISM, uko kuongorora kweSIM kunofungidzirwa seinokosha zvikuru.

Nhamba yeongorori inotungamirira kumari kusimbisa uye 50 point mark inofungidzirwa seyiyo nheyo yepamusoro, pamusoro apa iyo basa rebhizimisi rekugadzira riri kuwedzera uye pasi riri kupera.

Iyo Index Manufacturing PMI inobudiswa mwedzi nemwedzi.

Vhura FREE ECN Account Nhasi!

LIVE Demo
mari

Kutengeserana kwekutengesa kune ngozi.
Iwe unogona kurasikirwa nemari yako yose inotengeswa.

FXCC chiratidzo chiratidzo chepasi rose chinogamuchirwa uye chinotungamirirwa mumatare akasiyana-siyana uye chakazvipira kukupa iwe unyanzvi hwakanaka hwekutengeserana.

FX Central Clearing Ltd (www.fxcc.com/eu) inotungamirirwa neCyprus Securities and Exchange Commission (CySEC) neCIF nhamba yekodzero 121 / 10.

Central Clearing Ltd (www.fxcc.com) inotungamirirwa neVanuatu Financial Services Commission (VFSC) ine nhamba yelayisensi 14576.

KUSANGISA KUNOKOSHA: Kutengeserana muExx uye Mikangano ye Kusiyana (CFDs), iyo inoshandiswa zvakagadzirwa, inonyanya kufungidzira uye inosanganisira ngozi yakawanda yekurasikirwa. Zvinokwanisika kurasikirwa nemari yose yekutanga inotengeswa. Saka, Forex neCFD zvingave zvisina kukodzera kune varairi vese. Chengeta mari chete iwe unogona kukwanisa kurasikirwa. Saka chinyatsoziva kuti iwe unonyatsonzwisisa njodzi dzinobatanidzwa. Tsvaka mazano akazvimirira kana zvichidiwa.

FXCC haina kupa mazano kune veUnited States vagari uye / kana vagari venyika.

Copyright © 2019 FXCC. Zvose Zvakachengetedzwa.