Ukubaluleka Kwezinkomba Zomnotho

Izinkomba zezomnotho yizibalo ezibalulekile ezibonisa ukuqondiswa komnotho. Imicimbi yezomnotho ebalulekile yenza ukunyakaza kwentengo ye-forex, ngakho-ke kubalulekile ukuthola ukuhlolisiswa kwemindeni yezehlakalo zomnotho zomhlaba wonke ukuze kwenziwe ukuhlaziywa okuyisisekelo, okuzokwenza abathengisi be-Forex benze izinqumo zokuhweba ezinolwazi.

Ukuhumusha nokuhlaziya izinkomba kuqakathekile kubo bonke abatshalizimali njengoba bekhombisa impilo yonke yomnotho, balindele ukuzinza kwayo futhi kwenza abatshalizimali bakwazi ukuphendula ngezikhathi zemicimbi engazelelwe noma engalindelekile, eyaziwa ngokuthi ukushaqeka komnotho. Bangaphinde babhekiswe njengesikhali semfihlo sabathengisi 'njengoba beveza okuzayo okuzayo, okungenzeka kulindeleke emnothweni nokuthi iziphi izimakethe ezingathatha.

I-GROSS DOMESTIC PRODUCT (GDP)

Umbiko we-GDP ungenye yezinkomba ezibaluleke kakhulu kuzo zonke izinkomba zomnotho, njengoba kuyisilinganiso esikhulu kunawo wonke womnotho womnotho. Yonke inani lentengo yezimali yazo zonke izimpahla kanye nensizakalo eyenziwa yilezo zonke umnotho phakathi nekota okulinganiselwe (ayihlanganisi imisebenzi yomhlaba wonke) .Ukukhiqiza komnotho nokukhula- ukuthi yi-GDP imele, kunomthelela omkhulu cishe wonke umuntu ngaphakathi kwalokho umnotho. Isibonelo, lapho umnotho uphilile, lokho esizokubona ngokujwayelekile ukungasebenzi kanye nokunyuka kwamaholo njengoba amabhizinisi adinga umsebenzi ukuze ahlangabezane nomnotho okhulayo. Ukushintsha okuphawulekayo kwe-GDP, phezulu noma phansi, ngokuvamile kunomthelela omkhulu emakethe, ngenxa yokuthi umnotho omubi ngokuvamile usho imali ephansi yokukhipha izinkampani, eziguqula imali ephansi nezintengo zamasheya. Abatshalizimali bakhathazeke ngempela ngokukhula okungakahle kweGDP, okuyisinye sezici ezomnotho ezisebenzisayo ukucacisa ukuthi umnotho usezingeni lomnotho.

I-CONSUMER PRICE INDEX (CPI)

Lo mbiko uyisilinganiso esasetshenziswa kunazo zonke ekukhuleni kwamandla emali. Ilinganisa ushintsho ngezindleko zesixhaso sempahla yabathengi kanye nezinsizakalo kusukela ngenyanga kuya enyangeni. Ibhasikidi lemakethe eliyisisekelo lapho i-CPI lakhiwe khona, lisuselwa enkampanini eningiliziwe yolwazi eqoqwe kusuka ezinkulungwaneni zemindeni ngaphesheya kwe-US ibhasikidi liqukethe ngaphezu kwezigaba ze-200 zezimpahla namasevisi ahlukaniswe ngamaqembu ayisishiyagalombili: ukudla nokuphuza, izindlu , izingubo, ezokuthutha, ukunakekelwa kwezokwelapha, ukuzijabulisa, imfundo nokuxhumana nezinye izimpahla nezinsizakalo. Izinyathelo eziningi ezithathwe ekwenzeni isithombe esicacile sezinguquko ezindleko zokuphila kusiza abadlali bezezimali ukuba baqonde umthamo wezezimali, okungabhubhisa umnotho uma kungalawulwa. Ukuhamba ngezintengo zezimpahla kanye nezinsizakalo kunomthelela ngqo ekuqinisekisweni kwezimali ezingenayo imali (ukutshalwa kwezimali okuhlinzeka ngokubuyisela ngendlela yokukhokhwa ngezikhathi ezithile kanye nokubuyiswa komphathi oyinhloko ekuvuthweni). Ukwehla kwamanani okunethezeka nokusimama kulindeleke emnothweni okhulayo, kodwa uma izintengo zemithombo esetshenziselwa ukukhiqiza okuhle nezinkonzo zikhuphuka ngokushesha, abakhiqizi bangathola ukuncipha kwenzuzo. Ngakolunye uhlangothi, ukuhlukumeza kungaba uphawu olubi olubonisa ukwehla kwesidingo somthengi.

I-CPI cishe iyinkomba yezomnotho ebaluleke kunazo zonke futhi ebhekwe kabanzi futhi iyona ndlela eyaziwayo kakhulu yokunquma izindleko zokuguquka okuphilayo. Isetshenziselwa ukulungisa inkokhelo, izinzuzo zomhlalaphansi, abakaki bezintela kanye nezinye izinkomba zomnotho ezibalulekile. Kungatshela abatshala izimali ukuthi yini engenzeka ezimakethe zezezimali, okwabelana ngokubili ubudlelwano obuqondile nokungaqondile namanani omthengi.

I-PRODUCER PRICE INDEX (PPI)

Kanye ne-CPI, lo mbiko ubonakala njengenye yezinyathelo ezibaluleke kakhulu ze-inflation. Ilinganisa intengo yezimpahla ezingeni eliphezulu. Ngokungafani ne-CPI, i-PPI inquma ukuthi abakhiqizi abaningi bayayithola kanjani izimpahla ngenkathi i-CPI inquma izindleko ezikhokhwa ngabathengi bezimpahla. Isici esikhulu kunazo zonke ebusweni babatshalizimali yikhono le-PPI ukubikezela i-CPI. Inkolelo yukuthi ukwanda okukhulu kwezindleko ezitholwa abathengisi kuzodluliselwa kubathengi. Ezinye zamandla we-PPI yizi:

  • Isibonakaliso esinembile kakhulu se-CPI esizayo
  • Umlando 'omude' wokuchungechunge lwedatha
  • Ukuphazamiseka okuhle okuvela kubatshalizimali ezinkampanini ezihlolwe (ukulinganisa, ulwazi lwezimpahla, ezinye izinsizakalo zezinsizakalo
  • Kungathutha izimakethe ngendlela enhle
  • Idatha inikezwa futhi ngaphandle kokulungiswa kwonyaka

Ngakolunye uhlangothi, ubuthakathaka yilokhu:

  • Izakhi ezinokuzenzekelayo, ezifana namandla kanye nokudla kungalimaza idatha
  • Akuzona zonke izimboni zomnotho ezihlanganisiwe

I-PPI inokuthola okuningi kokuboniswa kwayo kwezezimali futhi ingabhekwa njengomgqugquzeli wemakethe onamandla. Kuwusizo kubatshalizimali ezimbonini ezihlanganiswe ngokucubungula ukudayiswa okungenzeka okukhona kanye nezindlela zokuhola.

I-RETAIL SALES INDEX

Lo mbiko ulinganisa izimpahla ezithengiswa ngaphakathi kwemboni evelele futhi kuthatha isampula seqoqo lezitolo zokudayisa ezweni lonke. Ibonisa idatha kusukela ngenyanga eyedlule. Izinkampani zamasayizi wonke zisetshenziselwa ucwaningo, kusukela kuWal-Mart kuya kumabhizinisi asemadolobheni azimele, asemancane. Njengoba lolu cwaningo luzohlanganisa ukuthengiswa kwenyanga eyedlule, kwenza kube yisibonisi esifike ngesikhathi sokusebenza kwalesi simbonini esibalulekile kodwa umsebenzi wezinga lentengo yonke. Ukuthengisa okudayiswayo kubhekwa njengendlela yokukhomba (i-metric ekhombisa isimo samanje somsebenzi wezomnotho endaweni ethile) njengoba ibonisa isimo samanje somnotho, futhi kubhekwa njengento ebalulekile yokukhombisa ukukhuphula imali, okudala inzalo enkulu Ababukeli be-Wall Street neBhodi Lokubuyekeza Lenkomfa elilandelela idatha yabaqondisi beBhodi YeBhodi. Ukukhululwa kombiko we-Retail Sales kungabangela ngaphezu kokungabi nhlobo kwemikhakha emakethe.

Ukucaca kwalo njengendlela yokwenza ukucindezelwa kwezezimali kungabangela ukuba abatshalizimali bacabange ukuthi kungenzeka ukuthi ama-Fed rate ahlukaniswe noma ahambe, ngokuya kwesimo somkhuba. Isibonelo, ukunyuka okuthe xaxa ekudayiseni okudayisa phakathi kwebhizinisi kungase kulandelwe ukunyuka kwesikhashana esifundeni senzalo yiFed ngethemba lokuvimbela ukukhuphuka kwamandla okungenzeka. Uma ukuthengiswa okuthengiswayo kugxotshiwe noma kuphungulwa, lokhu kusho ukuthi abathengi abasebenzisi imali emazingeni angaphambilini futhi bangabonakalisa ukwehla kwemali ngenxa yendima ebalulekile ekusebenziseni komuntu siqu emnothweni wezomnotho.

IZIMISEBENZI ZEMISEBENZI

Isimemezelo somsebenzi esibaluleke kunazo zonke senziwa ngoLwesihlanu wokuqala njalo ngenyanga. Kuhlanganisa isilinganiso sokungasebenzi (amaphesenti omsebenzi ongasebenzi, inani lamathuba adalwe, amahora ajwayelekile asetshenziswa ngeviki kanye nesilinganiso semali engenayo yehora). Lo mbiko uvame ukuholela ekunyakeni okukhulu kwemakethe. Umbiko we-NFP (Non-Farm Employment) umbiko mhlawumbe umbiko onamandla amakhulu okuhambisa izimakethe. Ngenxa yalokho abaningi abahlaziyi, abahwebi nabatshali-zimali balindele inombolo ye-NFP kanye nokunyakaza okuqondisayo kuzobangela. Njengoba amaqembu amaningi kangaka ebuka lo mbiko futhi ewuhumusha, ngisho nalapho inombolo ihambisana nomklomelo, ingabangela ukuguquka kwesilinganiso esikhulu.

Njengezinye izinkomba, umehluko phakathi kwedatha yangempela ye-NFP kanye nezibalo ezilindelekile zizonquma umphumela jikelele wedatha emakethe. Emalini engekho epulazini yanda, kuyisibonelo esihle sokuthi umnotho ukhula futhi ngokufanayo. Kodwa-ke, uma ukwanda kwe-NFP kwenzeka ngesilinganiso esisheshayo, lokhu kungabangela ukwanda kwamanani emali.

UMPHAKATHI WEZEMBONO INDEX (CCI)

Njengoba igama libonisa, le nkhomba ikhombisa ukuzethemba komthengi. Ichazwa ngokuthi yizinga elihle lokuthi abathengi banalo ngokwezomnotho, okusho ukuthi abathengi bayasindisa futhi basebenzise imali. Lesi sibonakaliso sezomnotho sikhishwe ngoLwesibili olwedlule lwenyanga, futhi silinganisa ukuthi abantu abanokwethenjelwa bazizwa kanjani ngokuzinza kwabo okuzuzayo okuba nomthelela oqondile ezinqumweni zabo zezomnotho, ngamanye amazwi, umsebenzi wabo wokuchitha imali. Ngenxa yalesi sizathu, i-CCI ibonakala njengenkomba ebalulekile yomumo jikelele womnotho.

Izilinganiso zisetshenziselwa ukukhombisa izinga lokusetshenziswa komkhiqizo owenziwe ekhaya kanti i-Federal Reserve ibheka i-CCI uma ikhetha izinguquko zesilinganiso senzalo.

AMAKHODI OKUHLELEKILE

Lo mbiko unikeza isilinganiso sokuthi bangakanani abantu abachithayo ngesikhathi sokuthenga isikhathi eside (imikhiqizo elindeleke ukuba idlule isikhathi esingaphezu kweminyaka ye-3) futhi ingase inikeze ukuqonda okuzayo esikhathini somkhakha wokukhiqiza. Kuwusizo kulabo abatshalizimali hhayi kuphela emigomeni yokuqokwa kwamazinga, kepha njengesibonakaliso sokufuna ibhizinisi lonke. Izimpahla zezimali eziyinhloko zimelela ukuthuthukiswa kwezindleko ezinkulu kunenkampani ezingenza futhi izibonakaliso zokuzethemba ezimweni zebhizinisi, ezingabangela ukukhushulwa kwezokuthengisa ngokuqhubekayo nokuthengiswa kwezimali futhi kuzuze emahoreni amahora asetshenziselwe futhi engekho epulazini. Ezinye zamandla ezimiso eziqinile zezimpahla ziyi:

  • Ukuhleka kwemboni okuhle
  • Idatha inikezwe ngokuluhlaza futhi ngezilungiso zonyaka
  • Inikeza idatha ekhangele phambili njengamazinga okusungula kanye nebhizinisi elisha, elibalula ekuzuzeni okuzayo

Ngakolunye uhlangothi, ubuthakathaka obungabonakala yilokhu:

  • Isampula yocwaningo ayinaso ukuphambuka okujwayelekile kwamanani ukuze kulinganise iphutha
  • Iphezulu kakhulu; ukuhamba kwamaphesenti kufanele kusetshenziswe ukukhomba izitayela zesikhathi eside

Umbiko ngokujwayelekile unikeza ukuqonda okubanzi kokuthengiswa kwezinkomba eziningi, futhi kungasiza kakhulu ekusizeni abatshalizimali ukuba bazizwele ukuthola imali engaba yizimboni ezimele kakhulu.

IBHAYIBHELI LE-BEIGE

Usuku lokukhululwa kwalesi sikhombisi yiLwesithathu ezimbili ngaphambi kokuba kube nomhlangano we-Federal Open Market Committee (FOMC) kwizinga lentela, izikhathi ezingu-8 (8) ngonyaka. Igama elithi 'Beige Book' lisetshenziselwa umbiko weFili othiwa Isifinyezo se-Commentary ezimweni zamanje zezomnotho yi-Federal Reserve District.

Ibhuku le-Beige ngokujwayelekile liqukethe imibiko evela emabhange kanye nezingxoxo nabacwaningi, ochwepheshe bezimakethe, njll futhi isetshenziselwa ukwazisa amalungu ekushintsheni komnotho okungenzeka kwenzeke kusukela emhlanganweni wokugcina. Izingxoxo ezivame ukuqhutshwa zizungeze izimakethe zomsebenzi, izinkokhelo zemivuzo nezindleko, umsebenzi wokudayisa kanye ne-ecommerce kanye nokukhiqizwa kwempahla. Ukubaluleka kwama-beige Amabhuku aletha kubatshali-zimali ukuthi bangabona imibono ekhangele phambili futhi bangasiza ekubikezeleni izitayela futhi balindele izinguquko ezinyangeni ezimbalwa ezilandelayo.

I-INTEREST RATES

Izithakazelo zenzalo yizona ezihamba phambili emakethe ye-forex futhi zonke izinkomba zomnotho ezingenhla zibhekwa ngokucophelela yi-Federal Open Market Committee ukuze kunqume impilo yonke yomnotho. I-Fed ingakwazi ukunquma ngokufanele uma iyanciphisa, iphakame noma ishiya imali yesithakazelo ingashintshi, konke kuxhomeke ebufakazini obuhlangene emnothweni wezomnotho. Ukuba khona kwezinga lentela kuvumela ababolekisi ukuba basebenzise imali ngokushesha kunokuba balinde ukulondoloza imali ukuze bathenge. Ukunciphisa inani lentela, abantu abazimisele kakhulu ukuboleka imali yokwenza ukuthenga okukhulu, njengezindlu noma izimoto. Uma abathengi bakhokhela kancane kancane, lokhu kubanika imali engaphezulu yokuyisebenzisa engabangela umonakalo omkhulu wokusetshenziswa kwemali kulo lonke umnotho. Ngakolunye uhlangothi, izinga lentengo ephakeme lisho ukuthi abathengi abanalo imali engenayo kakhulu futhi kumele banciphise imali. Uma izinga lesithakazelo esiphezulu lihlanganiswa nezindinganiso ezengeziwe zokubolekisa, amabhange enza isikweletu esincane. Lokhu kuthinta abathengi, amabhizinisi kanye nabalimi abazogodla ekusetshenzisweni kwemishini emisha, ngaleyo ndlela banciphisa umkhiqizo noma banciphise inani labasebenzi. Noma nini lapho inani lesithakazelo likhuphuka noma liwela, sizwa ngezinga lezimali zikahulumeni (amabhange amanani asetshenziswa ukubolekisa imali). Izinguquko ezingeni lesithakazelo zingathinta kokubili ukukhuphuka kwemali kanye nokwehla kwemali. Ukwehla kwamandla emali kubhekisela ekukhuphukeni kwentengo yezimpahla kanye nezinsizakalo ngokuhamba kwesikhathi, ngenxa yomnotho oqinile futhi onempilo. Kodwa-ke, uma ukwehla kwamandla emali kushiywe kungahlosiwe, kungaholela ekulahlekelweni okukhulu kwamandla okuthenga. Njengoba kubonakala, amanani entengo kuthinta umnotho ngokuthonya ukusetshenziswa kwemali yabathengi kanye nebhizinisi, ukukhuphuka kwamanani emali nokunciphisa imali. Ngokulungiswa kwesilinganiso sezimali se-federal, i-Fed iyasiza ukugcina umnotho ulinganise ngaphezu kwesikhathi eside.

Ukuqonda ubudlelwano phakathi kwamazinga ezithakazelo nomnotho wase-US, kusiza abatshalizimali ukuba baqonde isithombe esikhulu futhi benze izinqumo zokutshala izimali ezingcono.

IZINDABA ZEZINDLU

Lo mbiko uhlanganisa inani lamakhaya amasha aseqalile ukwakha ngaphakathi kwenyanga kanye nokuthengisa ekhaya okukhona. Umsebenzi wokuhlala indawo iyimbangela enkulu yokugqugquzela umnotho wezwe futhi kuyisilinganiso esihle samandla omnotho. Ukuthengwa kwekhaya okuphansi kanye nokuqala ekhaya okuqala kungabhekwa njengesibonakaliso somnotho obuthakathaka. Zombili izakhiwo zokwakha nezibalo zezindlu zizoboniswa njengenguquko yephesenti kusukela enyangeni yangaphambili nonyaka wonyaka. Izindlu ziqala kanye nezibalo zokwakha zombili zombili zibhekwa njengezinkomba ezihola phambili, futhi izibalo zemvume yokwakha zisetshenziselwa ukuqhathanisa i-Congress Board ye-US Leading Index (inkomba esetshenziswe njalo ngenyanga ukubikezela ukuqondiswa kokunyakaza kwezomnotho emhlabeni ezinyangeni ezizayo). Lokhu akuyona umbiko ophazamisa imakethe, kodwa abanye abahlaziyi bazosebenzisa umbiko wokuqala wezindlu ukusiza ukudala okulinganiselwe ezinye izinkomba ezisekelwe kubathengi.

Inzuzo Corporate

Lo mbiko wesibalo senziwa yi-Bureau of Economic Analysis (BEA) njalo ngesineke futhi ufingqa inzuzo engenayo yezinkampani kwi-National Income and Product Accounts (NIPA).

Ukubaluleka kwabo kubangelwa ukuhambisana ne-GDP, njengenzuzo eqinile yezinkampani kubonisa ukukhuphuka kokuthengisa nokukhuthaza ukukhula komsebenzi. Amabhizinisi asebenzisa inzuzo yabo ekukhuliseni imali, akhokhela izabelo kubanikazi bamasheya noma ukutshalwa imali kabusha ebhizinisini labo. Ngaphezu kwalokho, abatshalizimali bafuna amathuba amasha okutshala izimali, ngakho-ke bayandisa ukwenziwa kwemakethe yamasheya.

ibhalansi Trade

I-Balance Trade yiyona umehluko phakathi kokungeniswa kwamanye amazwe kanye nokuthunyelwa kwezwe elinikezwe isikhathi esinikeziwe. Isetshenzisiwe ngabakwa-economics njengethuluzi lokubala, njengoba libenza bakwazi ukuqonda amandla okulinganiswa komnotho wezwe kuqhathaniswa namanye amazwe omnotho kanye nokugeleza kokuhwebelana phakathi kwezizwe.

Ukudlula kwezohwebo kuyadingeka, lapho inani elihle lisho ukuthi ukuthunyelwa kwamanye amazwe kunkulu okuthengiswayo; kanti ngakolunye uhlangothi, ukulahlekelwa kwezokuhweba kungaholela ekukhokheni isikweletu esikhulu sasekhaya.

Inkomba ishicilelwa njalo ngenyanga.

Umthengi Sentiment

Lesi silinganiso samanani sibonakaliso sezomnotho sempilo yonke yomnotho, esinqunywe umbono womthengi. Iqukethe imizwa yempilo yamanje yezemali yomuntu, impilo yomnotho wesifunda esikhathini esifushane nokubikezela kokukhula komnotho wesikhathi eside.

Imizwa yabathengi ingasetshenziselwa ukubona ukuthi abantu abanethemba noma abangathembeki baqondana nezimo zamakethe zamanje.

Ukukhiqiza PMI

I-PMI Yokukhiqiza iyinkomba yempilo yezomnotho yomkhakha wokukhiqiza wezwe elinikeziwe. Inkomba isekelwe ekuhloleni kwabathengisi bezokuthengisa kusuka ezinkampanini ezihola kulo lonke umkhakha wokukhiqiza, ukulinganisa imibono yabo yombuso wezomnotho wamanje kanye nethemba elizayo.

Inkomba ishicilelwe yi-Markit ne-ISM, lapho ukuhlolwa kwe-ISM kucatshangwa ukuthi kubaluleke kakhulu.

Ukunyuka kwe-index kubangela ukuqiniswa kwemali futhi uphawu lwe-50 lubhekwa njengezinga elibalulekile, ngenhla lapho imisebenzi yebhizinisi yokukhiqiza ikhuphuka futhi ngezansi iyahla.

Inkomba ye-Manufacturing PMI ishicilelwa njalo ngenyanga.

Vula i-akhawunti ye-ECN yamahhala namhlanje!

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