Ngaba ukunyuka kwiimakethe zengaphambili kunomdla?
I-Randomness inokuchazwa njengokungabikho komzekelo okanye ukuqikelela kwimiba yeziganeko. Ukulandelelana kweziganeko, imiqondiso okanye amanyathelo angabonakali, kubonakala kungekho myalelo kwaye uhluleka ukulandela iphethini eqondayo, okanye nayiphi na inhlanganisela.
Ukuba ufumana iqela labathengisi ndawonye kwingxoxo kwi-craft yabo, enye yezona zifundo ezichasayo kakhulu ziza kuba yinto ebonakalayo yokurhweba kwazo zonke iimarike ezahlukeneyo esizithengisayo, ngakumbi iimarike zangaphambili. Ngokuqhelekileyo abancedisayo kwingxoxo baya kuthatha izikhundla zobunini / eziphambene; abanye bathi iimarike zangaphambili ziyi-random ngokupheleleyo, ezinye zikhankanya ukuba zingekho.
Ukuba siyamkela ukuba iimarike zethu zenzeke ngokungaqhelekanga ngoko sichaza ukuba zonke iingeniso zethu ziphantsi kwento enye kunye nefuthe; inhlanhla kunye nenhlanhla. Sitshengisa ukuba uhlalutyo olusisiseko kunye nohlalutyo lobugcisa alusebenzi nto. Siphakamisa ukuba, ngelixa ezinye iimeko zekhalenda zezoqoqosho zingaphumelela kwimarike, asikwazi ukuqikelela; ukuba, njani kwaye bangakanani, baya kutshintsha iimakethi xa bekhululiwe.
Kunzima ukubeka inombolo kwinani labathengisi abadla kwi-forex kwimihla ngemihla, ulwazi olutsha lwe-BIS luchaza ukuba le ntlawulo ijikeleza i-5 trillion ngosuku ngalunye, ekumakeleni i-forex njengemarike enkulu yokuhweba emhlabeni jikelele. Ngaba injalo imarike, kunye nezigidi zabaxhasi abangaphumeleli ukwenza iipatheni ezibonakalayo, xa sibona ngokucacileyo iipateni zembali kunye nokuphuhlisa, malunga naluphi na uhlobo olude ukuya kwixesha elide, sikhetha ukuyigcina?
Ukuba iimarike zethu zangaphambili zazingenakwenzeka kwaye zingenakwenzeka ukurhweba, ngoko ngokuqinisekileyo asiyi kubona iinguqu ezibonakalayo ngaphezu kwexesha elide ukuya kwixesha elide? I-4hr yethu, okanye iitshathi zemihla ngemihla ziza kuthatha ukufana kwetafile yekhakiti; rhoqo ngokukhangela ngeendlela zombini ezikhulayo kunye nezikhenkce, ukunikezela ngolwazi olubini lungenakwenzeka ukutolika nokuthengisa.
Ibinzana elithi "likhohliswe ngokungahambi" lidla ngokusetyenziswa ngabachasene nezoshishino, njengoko bayigweba ngokurhweba. Nangona kunjalo, ibinzana linokutolika ngeendlela ezahlukeneyo; akusoloko ibango lokuba iimarike ziyingcipheko ngoko ke sinokudukiswa ngokuziphatha kweemarike, kunokuba ibe yinkcazo yokuba abahwebi bayakhohliswa yiyiphi into engabonakaliyo. Iimakethe zethu zangaphambili azifaneki zihamba ngeendlela ezingafaniyo, ngokukodwa zisabela kwisisindo sengqondo kunye nemvakalelo ebangelwa yiminyaka yezigidi zemisebenzi eyenziwa ngabathengisi abancinci bezabelo, ukufikelela kumaziko amashishini athile, kwiibhanki ezinkulu kunye neengxowa zemali. Zininzi zale mibono ziphuhliswa ngenxa yeziganeko zekhalenda zezoqoqosho ezisisiseko, ezikhutshwa imihla ngemihla. Ngaba sicebisa ngokucacileyo ukuba, ngokomzekelo; I-FOMC yase-USA iphakamisa inzala ebalulekileyo yenzalo ngokungalindelekanga ngu-1% ngexesha lokugqibela kwintlanganiso yonyaka ngoDisemba, ngoko ixabiso le-USD lingayi kuvuka? Ukuba kukho naluphi na uhlobo lokungahambi, luye lufaneleke kuphela ekupheleni kokuhamba.
Imizamo yethu edibeneyo yenza ukuba isibini sokuqala siqhube enye indlela. Masijonge ngethuba lethu lesibini kwiimarike njengengqungquthela enkulu yemfazwe, kunye nenqaku eliphakathi elimelela i-point point pivot. I-physics, amandla kunye namandla ohlangothini olunye kuya kuphumelela, ukukhupha ukhuseleko lwethu kwiimeko ezihamba phambili okanye ezinobungakanani ngosuku, ukuya kwi-R1 (bullish), okanye kwi-S1 iBhanya. Akukho nto ikhethiweyo kule ntshukumo, ngumphumo wendalo.
Ekugqibeleni ukuba sifuna ubungqina obuninzi bokuthi ukunyuka kweemarike akunakwenzeka, qwalasela indlela iimakethe zethu zangaphambili ziziphatha ngayo ngexesha leeseshishini zokuthengisa kunye nendlela ukuhamba kuhambelana ngayo nomsebenzi. Njengoko sisondela kwi-10pm GMT, siya kubona utshintsho oluncinane kwixabiso lemarike, ngaphandle kokuba ibali eliphambili leendaba zepolitiki liphule, okanye uqoqosho lwamazwe lonke luhlala kwindawo yokuhamba. Okona kuninzi, ngeli xesha lokuhlwa, iimarike zizolile, njengoko iibhanki ezinkulu zelizwe zihamba kwiindawo ezincinci kakhulu, ixabiso liqikeleleke kakhulu. Kungenakwenzeka ukurhweba kunikezwa ukungabikho kobutyebi kunye nomthamo, kodwa umzekeliso ogqithisiweyo wendlela iimakethe zethu zangaphambili ezingekho ngandlela-thile, kodwa zingenakunyaniswa ngokuthe ngqo kumsebenzi.
