FUNDAMENTAL ANALYSIS - Chidzidzo 7
Muchidzidzo chino iwe uchadzidza:
- Chii Chinokosha Kuongorora
- Ko macro-economic data releases inobata sei pamusika
Kuongorora kukuru kunogona kurondedzerwa se "nzira yekuongorora kuchengeteka, mukuedza kuenzanisa kukosha kwayo, nekuongorora kuenzana kwehupfumi, zvemari nezvimwe zvinokodzera uye zviyero." Muchidimbu, zvaiva mberi kwekutengesa kunetseka; isu tinotarisa kune zvose macro uye machirwe emakurukota ezvehupfumi pamusoro pekushanda kweimwe nyika kana nzvimbo, kuitira kuti atange kukosha kwemafaranga ayo, zvichienderana nedzimwe mari.
Kusiyanisa kwakasiyana-siyana kweKubatsirwa kweKubatsira
Iko kune yakakosha tsananguro yevavice vatengesi vanofanirwa kuve vanoziva nezve yakakosha nhau yekutengesa uye iyo data rakaburitswa; iro bhuku kungave: kupotsa, kurova, kana kuuya mukati sezvakafanotaurwa. Kana iyo data "ikapotsa fungidziro", saka zvinoitika kune inoenderana nyika zvinowanzove zvisina kunaka. Kana iyo data "ikarova fungidziro", inoonekwa seyakanaka kune iyo mari maringe nevezera rayo. Kana iyo data ikauya sezvakafanotaurwa, ipapo kukanganisa kwacho kunogona kuitiswa, kana kurerutswa. Mamwe emacro ehupfumi ezvemari anoburitswa ayo anogona kukanganisa zvakanyanya misika yezvemari ndeaya:
- Kubasa uye mabasa nhamba
- Inflation mashamba
- GDP
Kubasa uye Basa Nhamba
Semuenzaniso tichashandisa sangano rehurumende yeUnited States kusashaya kwemabasa uye data yebasa. Kunyanya kukoshesa kwepamusoro kwemashoko ehurumende asiri wepurazi, iyo inokwanisa kutengesa misika, kana iyo yakabudiswa nhepfenyuro, kana kuti inosasikirwa nehutano. Tichashandisawo zvimwe zvingangodaro, asi nhamba dzokufungidzira, kuenzanisira kuti iyo data inogona kududzirwa sei nevarimi.
Chokutanga, vhiki imwe neimwe yekutengeserana, kazhinji musi weChishanu, tinogamuchira nhamba yevhiki nevhiki yezvokutadza kushanda kwemashoko uye zvinodzokorora kubva kuB BLS; mahofisi emabasa ezvibhuku. Zvitsva zvenguva ichangopfuura yevhiki yapfuura zvinogona kunge zviri 250k, zvakakura kudarika yevhiki yapfuura 230k uye inoshaya kutaridzika kwe235k. Kuenderera mberi kwekutaura kungave kwakasimuka kubva ku1450k kusvika ku1500k, zvakare kunoshaya izvo zvataurwa. Aya mabhuku epa data angangodaro anokanganisa zvakanyanya US Dollar. Zvinonzwisisika kukosha kunogona kuderedza, zvichienderana nekuoma kwekushaya.
Chechipiri; iyo manje ine mukurumbira NFP dhata inoburitswa kamwe chete pamwedzi, yakamirirwa nemoyo wese sezvo ichigona kazhinji kukanganisa zvakanyanya kukosha kweUS Dollar. Nekudaro, zvinofanirwa kucherechedzwa kuti kukanganisa kweiyi dhata kwakanyanya kushoma munguva pfupi yapfuura (2017) kupfuura mumakore apfuura. Nguva pfupi yapfuura matambudziko emari uye yakazotevera kukwereta chikwereti kubva muna 2007-2009 uye munguva dzakatungamira kwazviri, akateedzana manhamba emabasa ane chekuita neNFP data aigara achinyanyisa, nekudaro kufamba kwemaviri emari akadai se: GPB / USD, USD / JPY uye EUR / USD zvaive zvakanyanya. Panguva ino zvazvino nhamba dzeNFP dzakaburitswa kazhinji dziri mukati meyakaomeswa renji, nekudaro mafambiro makuru emari yemari ari mashoma zvakanyanya kushamisa.
Inflation Figures
Kune zvakawanda zvekuwedzera kwezvikwata zvakabudiswa nehurumende 'sangano rehurumende, seyo ONS muUnited States The ONS (inonyanya kuzivikanwa yehurumende) inoparidzira maZimbabwe ekuwedzera kwenhamba mwedzi wega wega, iyo yakakosha yekuwedzera kwezvikamu ndeye CPI nePI, vatengi uye vatengesi vemadhora ekutengeserana. IASS inobudisawo chimiro chakadai semubairo wekutengesa, maonero uye kuendesa kwekutengeserana kwekutsvaga kwenyika uye nhamba dzemitengo yekutengesa kwemaimba, asi CPI inonzi inonyanya kukoshesa, zvose pamwedzi uye gore (YoY) kuwedzera kana kuderera. Tiri kushandisa maBritish anoenderana nemuenzaniso, nokuti panguva ino (2017), kutengesa kwenyika inyaya inokosha mu UK.
Kuwedzera kwepamuviri kwakange kwasvika munguva pfupi muUk kubva pachiyero che 0.2% mu 2016, kusvika ku 2.9% mukutanga kwechina ye2017. Uku kusimuka nokukurumidza kwakagadzira kufungidzira kuti bhandi guru rekuUnited States (BhoE), kuburikidza nemari yaro yemari, inomanikidzwa kukwidziridza chikwata chechikwata chechikwata. Iko kusvibiswa kwechimbichimbi mukutengesa kwezvinhu kwakave kwakonzerwa nekufunga kweUnited States kubuda muEU. Sterling yakawira zvakanyanya kufanana nevezera ravo guru (euro ne dollar) zvinoshamisa uye pasinei nekuvandudza kwezvino, ichiri ikozvino pasi kusvika. 15% zvichienderana nevezera rako kubva munaJune 2016. Uye mune zvehupfumi zvinokwana 70% zvichienderana nemutengi anopedza, nekutengesa uye maitirwo ariwo madzishe makuru, zvinokonzerwa nekuwira pasi kwehupfumi kwave kwakanyanya. Vatengesi ikozvino (Q2 2017) vachiona kutengesa kwekutengesa (kungowedzera 0.9% gore negore), kuwedzera kwemari kunowira; kunze kwe1.9% gore negore, nepo GDP yeKUK (yakawanda yemugove wezvakagadzirwa) yeQ1 ye2017 yaiva 0.2%, iyo yakaderera kune dzimwe nyika dze28 dzinoumba EU.
Kana kuwedzera kwezvinhu kuchiuya zvakakosha mberi kwehutano, vaongorori nevatengesi vanogona kunyatsoteerera kumashoko akasiyana-siyana kubva kuBritain yeUn UK, kuti vaone kana bhizimusi guru rinokwidza mitero kuti igadzirise kutengesa kwezvinhu, saka pound sterling yaizokwidza kune vezera ravo. Vashandi vanogona kuwanda pakarepo vachishandura kusava, kana kurohwa kwakanyanya, sechikonzero chekuenda kwenguva refu kana kupfupika mari.
GDP
Vatsoropodzi nevarimi vanogara vachinyatsocherechedza GDP mabhuku kubva kunyika dzakasiyana-siyana uye nharaunda, kuitira kuti vagadzirise hupfumi hwehupfumi hwemuparidzi akadaro. Kubudiswa kwacho kunowanzobudiswa nematare ehurumende uye data yeGDP inowanzotumidzwa semashoko akaoma; iyo inokosha yakakosha kusunungurwa kusununguka kuti kana ikarashika kana inorova zvakatarwa, ine simba rekutungamira forex, mutengo uye mararamiro emari.
Mutengo wakawanda wepamba (GDP) ndeyemari yemari yekupedzisira yekutengeswa kwemari yezvinhu zvose nemabasa akabudiswa munguva, kazhinji nenyika, zvisingaenzaniswi nenyika yose, kana GDP yenyika; kwegore negore kana gore negore. Kusiyana neizvi kwaizova GDP yeEurozone, iyo inoputsika kune dzimwe nyika, asi kuverenga kunowanikwawo kune imwe chete yemari blocs collective GDP.
Kuongororwa kweGeneti GDP kunoshandiswa kugona kushandiswa kwemari kwenyika yose, kana nzvimbo, kubvumira vaongorori nevatengesi kuti vaenzanise pasi rose. Zita rokuti GDP per capita rine chimwe chakakosha zvikuru, mune zvakawanda zvisingaratidzi kusiyana kwechokwadi mumari yekurarama uye kuwedzera kwenyika yemarudzi, kana nzvimbo. Ichi ndicho chikonzero vazhinji vezvematongerwo enyika vanosarudza kushandisa maitiro eGDP pamunhu pane izvo zvinonzi "simba rekutengesa simba" (PPP), sezvo zviri pachena kuti zvakakosha uye zvakarurama pavanotarisa kuenzanisa kusiyana kwehupenyu huri pakati pemarudzi akasiyana-siyana.
Kubudirira kukuru kweGDP kuburikidza nemunhu, kana yakashandiswa sechiratidzo chinoshanda chemuitiro wekurarama munzvimbo dzakasiyana siyana nenyika, ndeyokuti inowanikwa nguva dzose, yakawanda uye yakafanana. Inoyera nguva dzose uye pamwe chete; iyo nyika zhinji inopa GDP ruzivo pamusoro pezvishoma kwekota, kunyange zvazvo nyika dzakawanda dzakapfuura dzichipawo mwedzi wose, saka inobvumira chero hupi huri kufambira mberi hunoita kuti hurumidze kuonekwa.
GDP inoratidzirwa zvakanyanya mazuva ano, kuti imwe chiyero cheGDP inowanikwa kunenge nyika dzose munyika, achishandisa nzira yakafanana yeiyo masvomhu, zvichiita kuti kuenzanisa kwenyika kuve nyore. Inotaridzwa zvakasimba nguva dzose kuti tsananguro yezvigadzirwa zveGDP ndiyo ikozvino kuenzaniswa kwehuwandu pakati penyika dzakawanda dzeG20.
Kuongorora kutsvaga kwekushandisa uye kuishandisa kune zvekutengeserana kwedu, ibhizinesi risiri nyore. Tinofanira kuziva nezverimwe zviitiko zvinouya pa kalendari yedu uye tive nechokwadi chokuti (kana tiri mutengesi wezvinyorwa), tinozvipira kuti tishandise nekukanganisa kwebhuku chero ripi zvaro. Pasina mubvunzo zviitiko zvakakosha zvinotengesa misika yakadai se forex, zvigadzirwa uye nhamba dzakaringana. Kunyange humwe uchapupu huripo kuti mutengo unopindira kusvika kune mamwe makuru makuru anofamba, kana pivot points, kana nzvimbo dzeFibonacci, ndezvemasimboti anoshandiswa kare kutengesa misika yedu.
