Ubungqina bokuqinisekisa kunye nendlela yokujamelana nayo xa uthengisa i-Forex
Isiqinisekiso sokuqinisekisa sibonisa ukuba asikwazi ukuqonda iimeko zethu ngokuchanekileyo. Endaweni yoko sikhetha idatha (ngokwemigaqo elula) isenza sizive silungile, kuba iqinisekisa ubungqina bethu kwaye iqinisekisa ubungqina bethu. Ngokuqinisekisiweyo, into edlalwa ngokuba yi-"bias", okanye i-"side-side", siya kukhangela, sichaze, sithande, siyikhumbule ulwazi oluqinisekisa ubungqina bethu kunye neengcamango zethu. Kwiimeko ezininzi kunye neemeko siyakugxotha bonke ubungqina, sikhetha ukuthembela kumzingeli wethu, ngokuchasene nedatha nzima. Oku kuqinisekiswa kokubakho kungasenza senze izigqibo ezimbi ezibandakanya ukurhweba. Umzekelo; sinokunciphisa abaphumeleleyo kusasa, okanye sihlale silahlekelwa ngumsebenzi ixesha elide, njengoko sitshatyalaliswe ngokupheleleyo kwimibono yethu, nangona kukho ubungqina obuchasene noko.
Ubungqina bokuqinisekisa bungabalwa njengengcinga enqwenelekayo, oku kubangela ukuba umntu angaboni ngolwazi olubalulekileyo ukuze enze isigqibo, baya kugxila 'kwicala elinye' lenkcazelo exhasa iinkolelo. Umntu uya kubafuna kuphela idatha exhasa ukunyaniseka kwabo.
Yintoni esiyakholelwa kuyo ...
Kuya kubonakala ngathi siyizinto eziphilayo ezicwangcisiweyo ukukholelwa oko sifuna ukukholelwa, kwaye sifuna naziphi na ubungqina ukuqinisekisa ukuba iinkolelo zethu ziza ngokwemvelo. I-Counter i-intuitively kufuneka ifumaneke ngakumbi kunika amandla ukukhangela ubungqina bokuba ngokuchasene neenkolelo zethu, oku kuya kuchaza ukuba kutheni iimbono ziphuhlise, ziphile kwaye zisasazeka. Ukuqinisekiswa kweziganeko, xa iingcinga ezininzi ziqwalaselwa, zichazwe (zombini kunye nokuchasene) kwaye kuvunyelwene, kuya kunika indlela enamandla kakhulu yokuseka inyaniso ehlala ixesha elide, njengoko abathathi-nxaxheba kunye nabathathi-nxaxheba bafuna ubungqina ngokungafuneki ubungqina bokuchasisa imfundiso kwaye ngqina omnye.
Umdlalo othakazelisayo uza kuba ukubeka iingcamango zakho uze uqale ukukhangela ngobubungqina obungqina bokungqina kweengcamango zakho. Umzekelo; Unesiqhinga sokurhweba oqinisekileyo siya kusebenza kwaye unomdla wokuyivavanya. Ngoko uqala ukubuyela emva kokuvavanya, uze uphumelele ukuvavanya, ngelixa uphawuleza kwaye ukhangele ukuba ufuna ubungqina bokuba ungaphumeleka. Emva kweeveki eziliqela zokuvavanya, uyazibonakalisa ngokwemathematika ngaphaya kokungathandabuzeki, ukuba indlela kunye neqhinga lokurhweba lisebenza ngokwenene. Ayinakuphulukiswa, kodwa inethemba elihle, ukuba ulawulo lwakho lwemali kunye nemigangatho yemingcipheko yonke igcinwa ngokucophelela. Ngeendlela ezininzi uphinde uchaze iindlela zenzululwazi ezazisebenzisa kwilebhu, ukuze zifike eqinisweni.
Ingozi yokuxutywa kwi-bias yokuqinisekisa
Umzekelo wokucinga ngendlela esinokuyifaka ngayo ukunyaniseka, ekugqibeleni kubangele izigqibo zokuthengisa ezingafanelekanga, zinokuma njengolu:
Siphengisa ixesha elide lokurhweba kwi-EUR / USD, siye sahamba ngokukhuselekileyo kwiiveki ezimbini kwizorhwebo kwaye siye sahlala ixesha elide kwixesha elilandelelanayo, emva koko silandele umgangatho wokukhula ukwenzela ukuba ube yi-75 pips ngoku. Sitshintshile isitima sethu sokuqala se-150 pips kwi-75 pips, ngoko ke ingozi yethu ngoku i-75 pips. Siyabona ukuba kwikhalenda yezoqoqosho zanamhlanje, i-ECB ihlelwe kwi-12: 30. Isivumelwano asinakho utshintsho, xa i-ECB ibhengeza isigqibo salo senzala.
Nangona kunjalo, kungalindelekanga ukuba i-ECB ivakalise ukuba akukho tshintsho lomlinganiselo wentsingiselo ngoku, kodwa ibonisa ukuba bacinga ukuhlawula ixabiso elithile kwixesha elifutshane kwaye bamemezele ukuba banda ngokukhawuleza isixa sokunciphisa ukulinganisela, ngaphezu kwezinga elikhoyo le-€ 60b. I-100b ngenyanga iya kufumaneka kulo mgaqo-nkqubo, umgaqo-nkqubo wokunciphisa imali, njengoko banenkxalabo yokuba ukunyuka kwamaxabiso kuphazamisekile kwaye uqoqosho lwe-Eurozone lubangela ukukhula okubi kwiinyanga ze-12, ngaphandle kokuba bangenele ngoku.
Ithenda ekhohlakeleyo yenza ukuba kuthengiswe ngokukhawuleza kwi-euro, ngokukodwa i-EUR / USD, ididi yemali iwela nge-circa 75 pips ngaphakathi kwemizuzu, ukucima inzuzo yakho. Ihla ke i-50 iipips ngaphezulu kwaye iphelela usuku kunye ne-100 pips. I-euro nayo yawa malunga nabo bonke oontanga. Nangona kukho ubungqina obuchasene noko, uhlala udibene kunye nesimo sakho, nangona unesihlengikazi esilahlekileyo kwaye nangona kuthengiswa kweemarike ezibukhali kwi-euro. Ngoku ucinga ngokucwangcisa ukuma kwakho, njengoko uhlala uqinisekile ukuba i-euro inamandla kwaye idola libuthathaka.
Lo ngumzekelo wesifundo wendlela yokuthengisa i-bias confirmation bias inokulimaza ukurhweba kwethu. Ngezinye izihlandlo siza kubona inzuzo iphenduke ilahleko, akunakwenzeka, nangona kunjalo, akufanele siphumelele isicwangciso sethu sokurhweba kwaye singalokothi siwahoye iintaba zolwazi olubalulekileyo oluthabathela kwisimo sengqondo sethu.
