I-ANALYSIS YE-FUNDAMENTAL - Isifundo 7
Kulesi sifundo uzofunda:
- Kuyini Ukuhlaziywa Kwemvelo
- Ukukhishwa kwemininingwane ye-macro-economic kuthinta kanjani imakethe
Ukuhlaziywa okuyinhloko kungachazwa ngokuthi "indlela yokuhlola ukuphepha, ngomzamo wokulinganisa ukubaluleka kwayo kwangaphakathi, ngokuhlola izici ezihlobene nezomnotho, ezomnotho nezinye izinto ezihambisana nokulinganisa." Ngamafuphi, ukuhweba kwangaphambili kwakukhathazeka; sibheke kuwo wonke ulwazi olunzulu lwezomnotho nolwazi oluncane mayelana nokusebenza kwezwe elithile noma isifunda, ukuze kutholakale ukufaneleka kwemali yayo, ngokuhambisana nezinye zezimali.
Izigaba Ezihlukene Zokuhlaziywa Okuyisisekelo
Kunencazelo eyinhloko abadayisi be-novice abadinga ukujwayelana nayo maqondana nokuhweba kwezindaba eziyisisekelo nedatha eshicilelwe; okushicilelwe kungaba: kuphuthelwa, kushaywa, noma kungena njengesibikezelo. Uma idatha "ilahlekelwa isibikezelo", umthelela wezwe elifanele uvame ukuba mubi. Uma idatha "ishaya isibikezelo", ithathwa njengevumayo kuhlobo lwemali uma kuqhathaniswa nontanga yalo. Uma imininingwane ingena njengesibikezelo, umthelela ungalinganiselwa, noma wehliswe. Okunye ukukhishwa kwedatha enkulu yezomnotho okungaba nomthelela omkhulu ezimakethe zezezimali yile:
- Ukungasebenzi kanye nezinombolo zomsebenzi
- Izibalo zamanani emali
- I-GDP
Ukungasebenzi kanye nezinombolo zokuqashwa
Njengesibonelo sizosebenzisa ukungasebenzi kwemisebenzi kahulumeni wase-USA kanye nedatha yomsebenzi. Ngokuyinhloko umthelela ophezulu wezinyanga zokukhokhelwa kwezintela ezingekho pulazi, unamandla okuhambisa izimakethe, uma kushicilelwe idatha yedatha, noma ulahlekelwa ukubikezela. Siphinde sisebenzise ezinye, kodwa izinombolo zokukhomba, ukubonisa ukuthi idatha ingachazwa kanjani ngabatshalizimali.
Okokuqala, isonto ngalinye lokuhweba, ngokuvamile ngoLwesine, sithola inani lamasonto onke lamacala okungaqashwa kwamanje kanye nezimangalo eziqhubekayo ezivela ku-BLS; izibalo zabasebenzi. Izimangalo zamuva zangeviki eledlule zingaba yi-250k, ezinkulu kune-230k yesonto elidlule futhi zilahlekelwe ukubikezela kwe-235k. Ukuqhubeka kwezimangalo kungenzeka ukuthi kuvuke kusuka ku-1450k kuya ku-1500k, futhi kulahlekelwe ukubikezela. Lezi zincwadi zedatha kungenzeka zithinte kabi i-US Dollar. Ngokwemvelo umthelela uzokunciphisa, kuye ngokuthi ubuhlungu bunikezwa.
Okwesibili; idatha ye-NFP esedume kabi manje ishicilelwa kanye ngenyanga, ilindelwe ngokulangazela njengoba ingahle ithinte kakhulu inani leDola laseMelika. Kodwa-ke, kufanele kuqashelwe ukuthi umthelela wale datha mncane kakhulu muva nje (2017) kunaseminyakeni edlule. Kungekudala ngemuva kwezinkinga zezezimali kanye nokwanda kwemali okwalandela kusukela ngo-2007-2009 nangezikhathi eziholela kuyo, uchungechunge lwezinombolo zokuqashwa eziphathelene nedatha ye-NFP zazivame ukuguquguquka ngokweqile, ngakho-ke ukuhamba kwamabhangqa emali anjenge: GPB / USD, USD / I-JPY ne-EUR / USD bezinkulu. Okwamanje izibalo ze-NFP ezishicilelwe zivame ukuba sebangeni eliqinile, ngakho-ke ukunyakaza okukhulu kwamabhangqa emali kuncane kakhulu.
Amanani Amanani Emikhiqizo
Kunezinamba eziningi zezinkokhelo ezishicilelwe yizinhlangano zikahulumeni ezisemthethweni, ezifana ne-ONS e-UK I-ONS (izibalo zezwe ezisemthethweni) zishicilela izinombolo ze-inflation yase-UK inyanga ngayinye, izibalo ezibalulekile ze-inflation ziyi-CPI kanye ne-RPI, izibalo zabathengi nezokuthengiswa kwempahla yokuthengisa. I-ONS iphinda ishicilele isibalo semali yokukhuphuka kwamanani emali, imali yokufakelwa kwezinto zokufakelwa kanye nokuthunyelwa kwamanye amazwe kanye namanani e-inflation amanani entengo, kodwa i-CPI ithathwa njengeyona evelele kunazo zonke, kokubili ngenyanga nonyaka (YoY) ukwandisa noma ukwehla. Sisebenzisa isibalo sama-inflation sase-UK njengesibonelo, ngoba ngesikhathi samanje (2017), ukwehla kwamandla emali kuyisihloko esiyinhloko e-UK.
Ukwehla kwamandla kagesi kwakusanda kufakwa e-UK kusukela ngesilinganiso se-0.2% ku-2016, kuya ku-2.9% engxenyeni yokuqala ye-2017. Lokhu kukhula okusheshayo kuye kwadala ukucatshangelwa ukuthi ibhange eliphakathi lase-UK (i-BoE), ngokusebenzisa ikomidi layo lezinqubomgomo zemali, liyophoqeleka ukuba liphakamise izinga lesithakazelo. I-spike ngokuzumayo ekukhuphukeni kwamandla emali eye yabangelwa isinqumo sokubheka ama-UK sokushiya i-EU. I-sterling yahluke kakhulu kubangane bayo abakhulu (i-euro ne-dollar) ngokuphawulekayo futhi naphezu kokutakula okwakamuva, namanje njengamanje phansi. 15% kuqhathaniswa bobabili ontanga kusukela ngo-Juni 2016. Futhi emnothweni cishe ku-70% kuxhomeke ekuqhathaneni nomthengi, ngokudayisa kanye nezinsizakalo njengabashayeli abalulekile, umthelela wokuwa kwe-sterling kumnotho kuye kwaba nzima. Abathengisi manje (Q2 2017) befakazela ukuwohloka kokuthengisa (kuphela ku-0.9% ngonyaka), ukukhuphuka kwamaholo kuwela; kuphela i-1.9% minyaka yonke, kanti i-GDP yase-UK (umkhiqizo omkhulu wasekhaya) we-Q1 ka-2017 yayingu-0.2%, ephansi kunawo wonke amazwe e-28 akha i-EU.
Uma ukwehla kwamandla emali kungena ngokuphawulekayo ngaphambi kwesibikezelo, abahlaziyi kanye nabatshalizimali bangase balalele ngokucophelela izinkulumo ezihlukahlukene ezivela eBo UK, ukuze baqinisekise ukuthi ibhange eliphakathi lizophakamisa amanani ukuze lilawulwe ngokwezimali, ngakho-ke i-pound sterling izophakama ngokuhambisana neontanga. Abanini-zimali bangase basheshe bahumushe ukulahlekelwa, noma ukushaywa okuphawulekayo, njengesizathu sokuhamba isikhathi eside noma esifushane imali.
I-GDP
Abahlaziyi kanye nabatshalizimali bazohlale beqapha ngokucophelela ukushicilelwa kwe-GDP evela emazweni ahlukahlukene noma ezifundeni, ukuze kutholakale impilo enhle yommemezeli othile. Ukukhishwa okuvame ukunyatheliswa yiminyango kahulumeni kanye nedatha ye-GDP ivame ukubizwa ngokuthi idatha enzima; kubalulekile ukukhululwa komthelela wokuthi uma ulahlekelwa noma ushaya ukubikezela, unamandla okuhambisa izimakethe zangaphambili, izimpahla kanye nokulingana.
Umkhiqizo omningi wekhaya (i-GDP) isilinganiso semali sokubaluleka kokugcina kwemakethe yazo zonke izimpahla kanye nezinsizakalo ezikhiqizwa esikhathini, ngokuvamile ngamazwe, ngokungafani nesilinganiso somhlaba jikelele, noma iGDP yezwekazikazi; ngekota noma ngonyaka. Okungafani nalokhu kuyoba yi-GDP ye-Eurozone, ehlehliselwe emazweni ngabanye, kodwa ukufundwa kwenzelwa futhi ama-block blocs eqoqiwe ye-GDP.
Ukulinganisa kwe-GDP okuqokwayo kuyasetshenziselwa ukunquma ukusebenza komnotho wezwe lonke, noma isifunda, ukuvumela abahlaziyi kanye nabatshalizimali ukuba benze ukufaniswa kwamazwe ngamazwe. I-GDP yomuntu ngamunye ngamanye amazwe anephutha elilodwa elikhulu, njengoba lingabonakali ukungafani kweqiniso ezindleko zokuphila kanye namanani okukhuphuka kwamazwe, noma izifunda. Yingakho osomnotho abaningi bakhetha ukusebenzisa isisekelo se-GDP nge-capita kulokho okubizwa ngokuthi "amandla okuthenga amandla" (PPP), njengoba ngokusobala kusebenza kakhulu futhi kunembile lapho befuna ukuqhathanisa umehluko ezindinganisweni zokuphila phakathi kwezizwe ezihlukahlukene.
Inzuzo enkulu ye-GDP per capita, uma isetshenziswe njengendlela ebonakalayo yezinga lokuphila ezifundeni nasezizweni ezihlukahlukene, ukuthi lilinganiswa njalo, ngokubanzi futhi ngesisekelo esifanayo. It kulinganiswa njalo futhi ngokuhlangana; iningi lamanye amazwe linikeza ulwazi lwe-GDP okungenani ngekota, nakuba amazwe amaningi asephambili ewunikela njalo ngenyanga, ngakho-ke kuvumela noma yikuphi ukuthuthukiswa kwemikhuba okumele kutholakale ngokushesha.
I-GDP ibalwa kakhulu namuhla, ukuthi isilinganiso esithile se-GDP sitholakala cishe kuwo wonke amazwe emhlabeni, besebenzisa inqubo efana kakhulu ye-arithmetic, okuvumela ukulinganisa okulula kwezwe. Ilinganiswa njalo njalo ukuthi incazelo yezobuchwepheshe ye-GDP manje isilinganiso esifanayo phakathi kwamazwe amaningi we-G20.
Ukuhlaziya ukuhlaziywa okuyisisekelo nokuyisebenzisa ekuhwebeni kwethu, ibhizinisi elilula. Kudingeka siqaphele izenzakalo ezizayo ekhalendeni lethu futhi siqinisekise ukuthi (uma singumthengisi wezincwadi), sizenza sitholakale ukubhekana nomthelela wezincwadi ezinikeziwe. Ngaphandle kokungabaza yizehlakalo eziyisisekelo ezihambisa izimakethe ezifana ne-forex, izimpahla kanye nezilinganiso zokulingana. Yize kubonakala ubufakazi bokuthi intengo isabela ekufinyeleleni kwamanye amazinga amakhulu ahambayo, noma amaphuzu we-pivot, noma izindawo ze-Fibonacci, yizinto eziyisisekelo ezihamba phambili ezimakethe zethu.
