Liyini izinga lokushintshanisa elintantayo

Ngenyanga kaJulayi 1944, indinganiso yegolide yezimali yasungulwa yiNgqungquthela yaseBretton Woods yamazwe angu-44 ahlangene zempi yezwe II. Le Ngqungquthela iphinde yasungula Isikhwama Semali Samazwe Ngamazwe (i-IMF), iBhange Lomhlaba kanye nohlelo lwezinga lokushintshisana eligxilile legolide elinenani lika-$35 iwunsi ngayinye. Amazwe abambe iqhaza anamathisele izimali zawo kudola laseMelika, asungula idola laseMelika njengohlobo lwemali egciniwe amanye amabhange amakhulu angase alusebenzise ukuze azinzise noma alungise izilinganiso zenzalo ezimalini zawo. Kamuva ngo-1967 ukuqhekeka okukhulu kwadalulwa ohlelweni lapho ukugijima kwegolide kanye nokuhlaselwa kwepondo yaseBrithani kwaholela ekwehleni kwephawundi ngo-14.3%. Ekugcineni, idola laseMelika lasuswa ezingeni legolide ngo-1971 ngesikhathi sokuphatha kukaMongameli uRichard Nixon futhi akuphelanga sikhathi esingakanani ngemva kwalokho, ngo-1973, uhlelo lwabhidlika ngokuphelele. Mayelana nalokhu, izimali ezibambe iqhaza bekufanele zintante ngokukhululeka. 

Ukwehluleka kwezinga legolide kanye nokusungulwa kwezinkuni ze-Bretton kuholele kulokho okubizwa 'isistimu yezinga lokushintshanisa elintantayo'. Uhlelo lapho inani lemali yezwe linqunywa imakethe yokushintshanisa imali yangaphandle kanye nokunikezwa okulinganiselwe kanye nesidingo sezinye izinhlobo zemali. Izinga lokushintshisana elintantayo alivinjelwa imikhawulo yokuhweba noma izilawuli zikahulumeni, ngokungafani nezinga lokushintshanisa eligxilile.

Isithombe esibonisa izindawo kanye nesistimu yazo yokushintshanisa imali

Ukulungiswa kumazinga okushintshanisa imali

Kuhlelo lwesilinganiso sokushintshisana esintantayo, amabhange amakhulu athenga futhi adayise izimali zawo zendawo ukuze alungise izinga lokushintshisana. Umgomo walokhu kulungiswa uwukusimamisa imakethe noma ukuzuza uguquko olunenzuzo esilinganisweni sokushintshisana. Umfelandawonye wamabhange amakhulu, njengalawo eQembu Lezizwe Eziyisikhombisa (eCanada, eFrance, eJalimane, e-Italy, eJapane, e-United Kingdom, nase-United States), ngokuvamile asebenza ndawonye ukuze aqinise umthelela wokulungiswa kwawo ezilinganisweni zokushintshanisa imali, okuyinto nokho ngokuvamile ihlala isikhashana futhi ayinikezi ngaso sonke isikhathi imiphumela oyifunayo.

Phakathi kwezibonelo ezivelele zokungenelela okuhlulekile kwenzeka ngo-1992 lapho usozimali uGeorge Soros ehola ukuhlasela okuhleliwe kwephawundi laseBrithani. Kusukela ngo-Okthoba 1990, i-European Exchange Rate Mechanism (ERM) yayisiseduze nokuqedwa. Khonamanjalo, iBhange LaseNgilandi lalifuna ukukhawulela ukuntengantenga kwePondo yaseBrithani futhi ngenxa yekhono layo lokusiza i-euro ehlongozwayo, iphawundi lafakwa ku-European Exchange Rate Mechanism. Ehlose ukuphikisa lokho ayekuthatha njengenani elidlulele lokungena kuphawundi, uSoros ugibele ukuhlasela okuhlangene okuye kwaholela ekwehlisweni kwenani likapondo waseBrithani ngempoqo kanye nokuhoxiswa kwayo ku-ERM. Umphumela walokhu kuhlasela ubize umgcinimafa waseBrithani cishe i-£ 3.3 billion ngenkathi i-Soros ithola isamba se-$ 1 billion.

Amabhange amakhulu angakwazi futhi ukwenza izinguquko ezingaqondile ezimakethe zezimali ngokukhuphula noma ukwehlisa izilinganiso zenzalo ukuze kuthinte ukuhamba kwezimali zabatshalizimali ezweni. Umlando wokuzama ukulawula izintengo ngaphakathi kwamabhendi aqinile ubonise ukuthi lokhu akusebenzi ngaso sonke isikhathi izizwe eziningi zivumela izimali zazo ukuba zintante ngokukhululekile, futhi zisebenzisa amathuluzi ezomnotho ukuze ziqondise izinga lemali yazo emakethe yokushintshisana.

Ukungenelela kukahulumeni waseShayina emazingeni okuhwebelana nakho kubonakala ngebhange layo elikhulu, i-People's Bank of China (PBOC) - ibhange elikhulu lingenela njalo emazingeni emali yalo ukuze i-yuan ibukeke ingaphansi. Ukuze kuzuzwe lokhu, i-PBOC igxilisa i-yuan kubhasikidi wezinhlobo zemali ukuze yehlise inani layo futhi yenze ukuthunyelwa kwe-China kwamanye amazwe kushibhe. Uma kubhekwa ukuthi idola laseMelika libusa ubhasikidi wezinhlobo zemali, i-PBOC iqinisekisa ukugcina i-yuan ngaphakathi kwebhendi yokuhweba engu-2% ezungeze idola laseMelika ngokuthenga ezinye izinhlobo zemali noma amabhondi oMgcinimafa wase-US. Iphinde ikhiphe i-yuan emakethe evulekile ukuze kugcinwe lobo bubanzi. Ngokwenza kanjalo, kwandisa ukunikezwa kwe-yuan futhi kukhawulele ukunikezwa kwezinye izimali.

Umehluko phakathi kwamazinga okushintshanisa antantayo nagxilile

Uma kuqhathaniswa nesilinganiso esinqunyiwe, izilinganiso zokushintshanisa ezintantayo zibhekwa njengezisebenza kahle kakhulu, ezinobulungisa, futhi ezimahhala. Kungaba yinzuzo ezikhathini zokungaqiniseki kwezomnotho lapho izimakethe zingazinzile ukuze zibe nezinhlelo zesilinganiso sokushintshaniswa kwezimali ezingaguquki, lapho izimali zikhokhwa khona futhi ukushintshashintsha kwentengo kukuncane kakhulu. Idola laseMelika livamise ukuthenjelwa amazwe asathuthuka kanye nezomnotho ukuthi liqinise izimali zawo. Ngokwenza kanjalo, bangakha umuzwa wokuzinza, bathuthukise ukutshalwa kwezimali, futhi banciphise ukwehla kwamandla emali. Ibhange elikhulu ligcina izinga lokushintshisana lasendaweni ngokuthenga nokudayisa imali yalo emakethe yokushintshiselana kwamanye amazwe esikhundleni semali ekhonjiwe. Isibonelo, uma kunqunywa ukuthi inani leyunithi eyodwa yohlobo lwemali yasendaweni lilingana namaDola angu-3 ase-US, ibhange elikhulu kuzofanele liqinisekise ukuthi liyakwazi ukunikeza lelo dollar emakethe ngesikhathi esidingekayo. Ukuze ibhange elikhulu ligcine izinga, kufanele libambe izinga eliphezulu lezimali zangaphandle ezingasetshenziselwa ukukhulula (noma ukumunca) izimali ezengeziwe (noma ngaphandle) kwemakethe ukuze kuqinisekiswe ukuhlinzekwa kwemali okufanele kanye nokuncipha kokuguquguquka kwezimakethe.

Isilinganiso Esintantayo

Ngokungafani nesilinganiso esinqunyiwe, izinga lokushintshisana elintantayo "liyazilungisa lona ngokwalo" futhi linqunywa imakethe yangasese ngokuqagela, ukuhlinzeka nokufunwa nezinye izici. Ezakhiweni zesilinganiso sokushintshisana esintantayo, izinguquko ezintengweni zemali zesikhathi eside zimelela amandla omnotho aqhathaniswayo. kanye nomehluko kuzilinganiso zenzalo kuwo wonke amazwe kuyilapho izinguquko kumanani ohlobo lwemali yesikhathi esifushane zimelela izinhlekelele, ukuqagela, kanye nokunikezwa kwansuku zonke kanye nesidingo sohlobo lwemali. Thatha isibonelo, uma isidingo sohlobo lwemali siphansi, inani lohlobo lwemali lizokwehla. Ngakho-ke, izimpahla ezivela kwamanye amazwe ziba eqolo, okuvusa isidingo sezimpahla zasekhaya kanye nezinsizakalo, okuzodala ukuthi kudaleke amathuba emisebenzi, okubangele ukuthi imakethe izilungise ngokwayo.

Esimeni esinqunyiwe, izingcindezi zemakethe zingaphinda zibe nomthelela ezinguqukweni zenani lokushintshisana ukuze empeleni, alukho uhlobo lwemali olungaguquki ngokuphelele noma oluntantayo. Ngezinye izikhathi, lapho uhlobo lwemali lwasekhaya lubonisa inani lalo langempela uma kuqhathaniswa nemali yalo ekhonjiwe, imakethe engaphansi komhlaba (ebonisa kakhudlwana ukunikezwa kwangempela kanye nesidingo) ingase ithuthuke. Lokhu kuzokhuthaza ibhange elikhulu lezwe ukuthi libuyekeze noma lehlise inani lezinga elisemthethweni ukuze izinga lihambisane naleli elingekho emthethweni, ngaleyo ndlela limise ukusebenza kwezimakethe ezingekho emthethweni.

Emibusweni entantayo, amabhange amakhulu angaphoqeleka ukuthi angenele ekuhwebeni kwezimakethe ngokusebenzisa izinyathelo zokuqinisekisa ukuzinza nokugwema ukwehla kwamandla emali; Nokho, akuvamile ukuthi ibhange eliphakathi lombuso ontantayo liphazamise.

Umthelela wokushintshashintsha kwemali ezilinganisweni zokushintshanisa ezintantayo

Umthelela wezomnotho

Ukushintshashintsha kwezimali kunomthelela oqondile kunqubomgomo yezimali yezwe. Uma ukuguquguquka kohlobo lwemali kuhlala njalo, kungaba nomthelela omubi emakethe kukho kokubili uhwebo lwangaphandle nolwendawo.

Umthelela ezimpahleni nakumasevisi

Uma imali yendawo iba buthaka, izimpahla ezingenisiwe zizobiza ngaphezulu uma ziqhathaniswa nezimpahla zasendaweni futhi inkokhiso izothwalwa ngokuqondile kubathengi. Ngokuphambene, emalini ezinzile, abathengi bayoba nekhono lokuthenga izimpahla eziningi. Amanani kawoyela, isibonelo, athintwa ukushintshashintsha okukhulu ezimakethe zamazwe ngamazwe futhi izimali ezizinzile kuphela ezingakwazi ukumelana nomthelela wokuguquguquka kwentengo.

Umthelela kwezamabhizinisi namabhizinisi

Ukushintshashintsha kwemali kuthinta lonke uhlobo lwebhizinisi, ikakhulukazi amabhizinisi abandakanyeka ekuhwebeni kwemingcele noma ukuhweba komhlaba wonke. Ngisho noma inkampani ingathengisi noma ingathengi izimpahla zangaphandle ngokuqondile, ukushintshashintsha kwezilinganiso zokushintshanisa kuthinta izindleko zayo zezimpahla namasevisi.

Ubuhle bamazinga okushintshaniswa antantayo bumi kanje

1. Ukugeleza kwamahhala kwemali yangaphandle

Ngokuphambene nezinga lokushintshanisa eligxilile, ohlelweni lwezinga lokushintshanisa elintantayo, izimali zingathengiswa ngokukhululeka. Ngakho-ke akudingekile ukuthi ohulumeni namabhange basebenzise izinhlelo zokuphatha eziqhubekayo.

2. Ngokwebhalansi yezinkokhelo (BOP), kukhona uzinzo

Kwezomnotho, ibhalansi yezinkokhelo yisitatimende esibonisa ukuthi yimalini eshintshiwe phakathi kwamabhizinisi ezwe namabhizinisi omhlaba wonke esikhathini esithile. Uma kukhona ukungalingani kuleso sitatimende, izinga lokushintshisana liyashintsha ngokuzenzakalelayo. Izwe ukungalingani kwalo kuwukushoda lizobona imali yalo yehla, ukuthengiswa kwayo emazweni angaphandle kuzoba ishibhile okubangele ukwanda kwesidingo futhi ekugcineni kulethe i-BOP ekulinganeni.

3. Asikho isidingo sezimali ezinkulu zokushintshanisa imali yangaphandle

Mayelana namazinga okushintshanisa antantayo, amabhange amakhulu akudingekile ukuthi abambe izimali ezinkulu zemali yangaphandle ukuze avimbele izinga lokushintshisana. Ngakho-ke izinqolobane zingasetshenziswa ukungenisa izimpahla ezinkulu futhi zikhuthaze ukukhula komnotho.

4. Ukusebenza kahle kwemakethe okuthuthukisiwe

Izisekelo zomnotho omkhulu wezwe zingathinta izinga lokushintshisana elintantayo kanye nokugeleza kwephothifoliyo phakathi kwamazwe ahlukene, ngokwenza ngcono ukusebenza kahle kwemakethe.

5. Uthango ngokumelene nokwehla kwamandla emali ezintweni ezithengwayo

Amazwe anamazinga okushintshanisa ashintshile asengozini yokungeniswa kokwehla kwamandla emali ngezinga elinqwabelene ebhalansi yezinkokhelo noma amanani aphezulu avela kwamanye amazwe. Nokho, amazwe anamazinga okushintshanisa antantayo awayitholi le nselele.

Amazinga okushintshanisa antantayo anemikhawulo ethile

1. Ingozi yokuntengantenga kwezimakethe

Amanani okushintshanisa antantayo angaphansi kokuguquguquka okukhulu kanye nokushintshashintsha okukhulu, ngakho-ke kungenzeka ukuthi uhlobo lwemali oluthile lwehle uma luqhathaniswa nolunye uhlobo lwemali ngosuku olulodwa nje lokuhweba. Kuyafaneleka futhi ukuqaphela ukuthi izinga lokushintshanisa elintantayo alikwazi ukuchazwa ngezisekelo ze-macroeconomic.

2. Ukuhlehla ekukhuleni komnotho

Ukungabikho kokulawula amazinga okuhwebelana antantayo kungase kuholele ekukhuleni komnotho okukhawulelwe kanye nokusimama. Esimeni lapho kwehla khona kahle izinga lokushintshisana kohlobo lwemali, umcimbi onjalo udala imiphumela ebucayi yezomnotho. Thatha njengesibonelo, emazingeni okushintshanisa amadola-euro akhuphukayo, ukuthunyelwa kwempahla kwamanye amazwe kusuka e-US kuya ku-eurozone kuzobiza kakhulu.

3. Izinkinga ezikhona zingase zibe zimbi

Lapho izwe libhekene nezinkinga zezomnotho ezinjengokuntuleka kwemisebenzi noma ukwehla kwamandla emali okuphezulu, amanani okushintshanisa antantayo angase abhebhethekise lezi zinkinga. Isibonelo, ukwehla kwamandla emali yezwe ngesikhathi lapho ukwehla kwamandla emali sekuvele kuphezulu kungase kubangele ukwehla kwamandla emali kukhuphuke futhi kungase kulimaze i-akhawunti yamanje yezwe ngenxa yokwenyuka kwezindleko zempahla.

4. Ukuguquguquka Okuphezulu

Uhlelo lwenza izimali ezintantayo ziguquke kakhulu; ngenxa yalokho, zithinta izinqubomgomo zohwebo zezwe ngokuqondile noma ngokungaqondile. Uma ukuntengantenga kuvuma, izinga lokushintshanisa elintantayo lingazuzisa kokubili izwe nabatshalizimali kodwa ngenxa yokuguquguquka kwayo, abatshalizimali bangase bangafuni ukuthatha ubungozi obuphakeme.