Uyini umjikelezo wemakethe ekuhwebeni kwe forex
Zonke izici zempilo (isikhathi, ibhizinisi, isimo sezulu, izinkathi zonyaka njll) zonke zizungeza imijikelezo, futhi kukhona nemijikelezo etholakala ezimakethe zezimali ezivame ukubizwa ngokuthi imijikelezo yemakethe. Umqondo wemijikelezo yemakethe ubhekisela ezigabeni zokunyakaza kwentengo ezivame ukuphindaphinda, ngayinye enesethi yayo yezimpawu. Kubo bobabili abadayisi besikhathi eside nabesikhathi esifushane, kubalulekile ukuqonda imijikelezo yemakethe ezungeza izimakethe zezimali.
Lokhu kuwusizo kubahwebi njengoba kubavumela ukuba benze inzuzo ngokunyakaza kwentengo kunoma isiphi isigaba sempahla, okuhlanganisa amasheya, ama-cryptocurrencies, impahla, izimali, njll. Ukubaluleka kwemijikelezo yemakethe kugcizelelwa nakakhulu kubahwebi bokuphuma kokunye, njengama-CFD, njengoba kuvumela. ukuze bazuze kukho kokubili ukunyakaza kwentengo ye-bullish kanye ne-bearish. Nakuba ukunyakaza kwentengo kungase kubonakale kuhamba ngokungahleliwe kwehle nangaphezulu, empeleni kunezici ezihlukile ezithonywa izici zemakethe ezifana nokukhishwa kwezindaba okunomthelela omkhulu, izinqubomgomo zezimali, imijikelezo yokunciphisa kanye nobugovu emakethe amasha aphezulu naphansi.
Inkinga evamile abahlanganyeli bemakethe ababhekana nayo ukuthi abazi noma abanaso isipiliyoni sokubona izigaba zomjikelezo wemakethe, okuholela ebunzimeni ekukhetheni inkomba efanele yokuhamba kwentengo. Abahwebi bangase futhi bahlangabezane nokukhungatheka futhi bathole ukulahlekelwa lapho befuna ukuzuza ngokuphakama nokwehla kwezimakethe ngokwedlulele. Abathengisi bangabona kanjani imijikelezo ekunyakazeni kwentengo futhi bazi lapho ukunyakaza kwentengo kwempahla kungase kushintshe ukusuka kwesinye isigaba kuye kwesinye?
Kulesi sihloko, sizohlinzeka ngencazelo ejulile yemijikelezo yemakethe ehlukene futhi sikubonise lokho okudingeka ukwazi ukuze ube phakathi kwe-1% ephezulu yabatshalizimali abayinkimbinkimbi nabahwebi abanenzuzo. Ngokuqonda le mijikelezo yemakethe, abahwebi nabatshalizimali bahlonyiswe ngolwazi olubanzi ukuze benze izinqumo ezingcono zokuhweba futhi bathuthukise kakhulu inzuzo yabo.
Izinhlobo zemijikelezo yemakethe
Imijikelezo yemakethe iza ngokuhluka, futhi lesi sigaba sinikeza umbono wemijikelezo yemakethe evame kakhulu. Ukwengeza, amacebo awusizo okuthi ungazibona kanjani lezi zigaba zokunyakaza kwentengo kanye nenzuzo kuzo nazo zizobhekwa.
- Umjikelezo wemakethe we-Wyckoff
Njengoba sixoxile ngenhla, njengoba umnotho uhlangabezana nokukhula nokuwohloka komnotho, imijikelezo yezimakethe zezimali nayo ibonakala ngezigaba.
Izigaba zomjikelezo wemakethe yase-Wyckoff zichazwa kanje;
Isigaba sokuqongelela / sokunwetshwa: Ukwanda kwenzeka ngenxa yokukhula komnotho futhi kuphumela emakethe yezinkunzi. Kuphakathi nalesi sigaba lapho abatshalizimali nabahwebi bengathola khona inzuzo esikhundleni sokuhweba eside. Emnothweni ophethwe kahle, lesi sigaba singahlala iminyaka
Imakhaphu / isigaba esiphezulu: Kulapho ukucindezela kokuthenga kufinyelela phezulu futhi imali ehlakaniphile iqala ukwehlisa isikhundla sayo eside ezimpahleni ezinenani eliphezulu okuholela esigabeni sokufinyela noma sokusabalalisa.
Isigaba sokufinyeza / sokusabalalisa: Isigaba sokusabalalisa somjikelezo we-wyckoff siphawula isikhathi sokuwohloka kwemakethe, siqala ngenani eliphakeme futhi sigcine ngomkhombe. Ngalesi sikhathi, osomnotho babhekisela emakethe njengesesimweni sokwehla komnotho.
I-Trough / markdown: Kuleli qophelo, imakethe isicwile ezindlini zayo eziphansi kakhulu futhi imali ehlakaniphile kungenzeka isuse zonke izikhundla zayo ezimfushane okuzokwenza ukuthi imakethe ihlanganise noma iqale omunye umjikelezo wemakethe.
- Umjikelezo Wemakethe ye-Forex
Umjikelezo wemakethe ye-Wyckoff ungasetshenziswa kunoma iyiphi imakethe, uma kubhekwa isisekelo sayo kusayikholoji yokutshala imali, kodwa kunemijikelezo ehlukile kumakilasi athile ezimpahla. Umjikelezo wemakethe ye-forex odumile ukuqiniswa nokunciphisa umjikelezo wamabhange amaphakathi. Ukufana okuningana kungadwetshwa phakathi kwalo mjikelezo kanye nomjikelezo womnotho.
Phakathi nesigaba sokunwetshwa somnotho, izimakethe zamasheya ziqala ukusimama emikhunjini yakamuva yemakethe futhi izinkomba zezomnotho ziqala ukuthuthuka ezikhombisa ukukhula komnotho. Lesi sigaba sibonakala ngenqubomgomo yezimali exegayo kakhulu lapho amabhange amakhulu ehlisa inzalo ngesikhathi sokwehla komnotho ukuze akhuthaze imisebenzi yezomnotho futhi enze ukuboleka kushibhe. Lokhu kwandisa amandla okuthenga abathengi kanye nekhono lezinkampani zokutshala imali ezikhungweni zebhizinisi ezintsha. Amanani ezimakethe zamasheya aqala ukukhuphuka futhi afana nesigaba sokumaka somjikelezo we-Wyckoff futhi abatshalizimali baqala ukuthenga amasheya futhi, okuqhubekisela phambili ukusheshisa ukugijima kwenkunzi.
- I-Wall Street Market Cycle
Omunye umjikelezo wemakethe ovame ukubonwa umjikelezo wemakethe yase-Wall Street ohlobene eduze nomjikelezo wemakethe yase-Wyckoff. Ihlukanisa izigaba ezine ze-Wyckoff zibe imininingwane exhumene kakhulu nemakethe yamasheya kanye nendlela abatshalizimali abasabela ngayo kulesi sigaba ngasinye.
Umjikelezo uqala ngesigaba sokweqa, isingathekiso sokukhuphuka kwezintengo zesitoko ngokukhuphuka kwangaphambi kwesikhathi esinezici ezifanayo nesigaba sokunqwabelana somjikelezo we-Wyckoff. Ngesikhathi se-stealth, kulapho imali ehlakaniphile iqongelela khona izikhundla ezinde eziyenga irally emananini esitoko, ngaleyo ndlela iveze ithuba kubatshalizimali abasezingeni eliphakeme nabadayisi besitoko ukuthi bahlole izikhundla ezinde ezinhle kakhulu ngokusekelwe ekubalweni okushibhile kakhulu ngombono wokuthi imikhumbi emakethe i phezu. Lesi kuvame ukuba yisigaba eside kunazo zonke, esibonakala ngokwamanani akhuphuka kancane njengoba abatshalizimali abanolwazi oluncane nabaqalayo beqhubeka nokudayisa. Njengoba imakethe ilulama kusukela phansi, isigaba sokuqwashisa siqala lapho imali ehlakaniphile isusa khona okuncane okubanjiwe okude ngaleyo ndlela idale ukulungiswa okuncane kwe-rally, ebizwa ngokuthi i-bere trap. Kodwa imakethe yezinkunzi iyaqhubeka nokuthola ama-tractions, yenza ukuphakama okusha okuphezulu. Kuleli qophelo, imidiya yezezimali iqala ukugqamisa la mathuba amasha emakethe yamasheya, iheha abatshalizimali abaningi abathengisa futhi isheshisa imakethe yezinkunzi. Lesi sigaba saziwa ngokuthi yi-mania phase. Yilapho umdlandla uthatha indawo yokwesaba okwakuwumuzwa owawudlangile ngesikhathi imakethe iphansi. Futhi hhayi isikhathi eside kakhulu, iphenduka ngokushesha ibe ukuhaha, bese ukuhaha kube ukukhohlisa. Imali ehlakaniphile nabatshalizimali abayinkimbinkimbi baqala ukuphuma ezikhundleni zabo ezinde ezindaweni eziphakeme kakhulu, okubangela ukulungiswa okuphansi kokunyakaza kwentengo. Lokhu kwaziwa ngokuthi i-bull trap ngoba abatshalizimali abangenalwazi kangako babona ukulungiswa okuphansi njengethuba elihle lokuthenga lokwengeza ezikhundleni zabo ezinde ezikhona. Kodwa-ke, kulesi sigaba lapho ingcindezi yokuthengisa idlula ingcindezi yokuthenga, amanani ayaqhubeka ehla kakhulu, okuholela ekwethukeni nasekuphelelweni ithemba okuholela kulokho okubizwa ngokuthi yisigaba sokushaywa umoya, ngokuvamile isigaba esibi kakhulu kwezine kanye nesipiliyoni esibuhlungu kakhulu abadayisi nabatshalizimali abanolwazi oluncane.
Yini Abashayeli Bemijikelezo Yemakethe?
Izinto eziningi zingabangela imakethe ukuthi idlule ekuthuthukisweni nasekuthuthukisweni, lapho abatshalizimali bezama ukuthenga izimpahla ezithile noma bathuke futhi bashode ngamanani amakhulu. Kunezizathu ezimbalwa zemijikelezo ezimakethe zezimali; Okuyinhloko kuzo izinga lenzalo elihamba phambili emakethe yezezimali kanye nezinye izici zomnotho omkhulu ezihlanganisa ukwehla kwamandla emali, izinga lokukhula komnotho kanye nezinga lokuntuleka kwemisebenzi.
Kusobala futhi ukuthi umuzwa wemakethe udlala kanjani indima ebalulekile ezigabeni zomjikelezo wemakethe. Uma kukhona ukwehla kwamazinga enzalo, kucatshangelwa ukuthi kukhombisa ukukhula komnotho okuzothumela amanani ezimakethe phezulu. Ukwehla kwamandla emali kuvame ukwandulela ukwenyuka kwamazinga enzalo okungase kubangele ukwehla kwezimakethe kanye nokwehla kokukhula komnotho.
Izibonelo zomlando zomjikelezo wemakethe
Umlando wezimakethe zezimali ugcwele izibonelo zemijikelezo yemakethe. Isibonelo, ngeminyaka yawo-1990, kwaba nokukhula okungakaze kubonwe ekusetshenzisweni kwemali nasekukhiqizeni, okuholele ekwenyukeni kwesizukulwane sokukhula kwezingane kanye nokukhuphuka kwezimakethe zamasheya. Ukwethulwa kobuchwepheshe obusha, njenge-Internet, kwakuhambisana nenzalo ephansi kanye nezinga eliphezulu lesikweletu. Ekuqaleni kwekhulu leminyaka, izilinganiso zenzalo zenyuka ngokuphindwe kasithupha, okugcine kwaholela ekuqhumeni kwebhamuza le-dot-com kanye nokwehla komnotho okuncane kwaze kwaba yibhamuza lango-2007 lapho imakethe ivuka futhi. Kusukela lapho, amabhamuza emakethe alandelayo futhi aqhuma.
Ukuhlaziya imijikelezo yemakethe yemakethe yezezimali
Bonke abathengisi abanolwazi banezindlela abazisebenzisayo ukuhlaziya izigaba ezihlukene zomjikelezo wemakethe. Abathengisi abaningi basebenzisa isimiso se-Elliott wave ukuze bahlaziye ukunyakaza kwamanani kanye nokusetha ukuhweba kwe-Scout. Lo mqondo wokuhlaziya igagasi le-Elliott usekelwe esimisweni sokuthi "zonke izenzo zidala ukusabela okulinganayo nokuphambene." Lokhu kusho ukuthi isiqondiso sokuhamba kwentengo yempahla sincike ezicini zemakethe zangaphandle kanye nomuzwa.
Yiziphi ezinye zezinkomba ezisetshenziselwa ukubona imijikelezo yemakethe?
Ekuhlaziyweni kobuchwepheshe, izinkomba zisetshenziselwa ukuhlaziya cishe yonke into, kuhlanganise nemijikelezo yemakethe. Phakathi kwalezi zinkomba kukhona I-Commodity Channel Index (CCI) kanye ne-Detrend Price Oscillator (DPO). Uma uhlaziya imvelo yomjikelezo wempahla, zombili izinkomba zingaba usizo kakhulu. I-CCI yakhelwe ngokukhethekile izimakethe zezimpahla kodwa iwusizo ngokulinganayo ekuhlaziyeni amasheya kanye nama-CFD. I-DPO isebenza ngaphandle kwethrendi yokunyakaza kwamanani, ikwenza kube lula ukuhlonza ukuphakama nokwehla okujikelezayo kanye namazinga athengwe kakhulu nadayiswe ngokweqile.
Isifinyezo
Kuwo wonke umlando, zonke izimakethe zilandele iphethini eyindilinga, okusho ukuthi imijikelezo yemakethe iyaphindaphinda ngokwemvelo. Uma umjikelezo uphela, isigaba sawo sokugcina sivame ukuphawula ukuqala komunye omusha. Imijikelezo yemakethe nezigaba zayo ezihlukene iyizinsiza ezibalulekile kubatshalizimali nabahwebi abafisa ukugwema ukuhweba ngendlela engafanele yanoma iyiphi impahla yezezimali. Abadayisi besikhathi esifushane nabo bangazuza emijikelezweni yemakethe ngokuhweba ngokulungiswa kwemakethe kanye nokudonsela emuva ngesikhathi sezigaba zokunwetshwa.
